Is Guangzhou Automobile Group (HKG:2238) A Risky Investment?
Is Guangzhou Automobile Group (HKG:2238) A Risky Investment?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (HKG:2238) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
大卫·伊本说得很好,他说:“波动性不是我们关心的风险。我们关心的是避免永久的资本损失。”在研究公司的资产负债表有多风险时,考虑公司的资产负债表是很自然的,因为企业倒闭时通常涉及债务。我们注意到 广州汽车集团有限公司 (HKG: 2238) 的资产负债表上确实有债务。但是这笔债务是股东关心的问题吗?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
债务会带来什么风险?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
当企业无法轻易履行这些义务时,无论是通过自由现金流还是以诱人的价格筹集资金,债务和其他负债就会面临风险。资本主义的重要部分是 “创造性破坏” 的过程,在这个过程中,倒闭的企业被银行家无情地清算。但是,更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,公司必须以低廉的股价稀释股东,这样才能控制债务。当然,债务可能是企业的重要工具,尤其是资本密集型企业。在考虑企业使用多少债务时,要做的第一件事是将其现金和债务放在一起考虑。
See our latest analysis for Guangzhou Automobile Group
查看我们对广汽集团的最新分析
What Is Guangzhou Automobile Group's Net Debt?
广汽集团的净负债是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2023 Guangzhou Automobile Group had CN¥25.0b of debt, an increase on CN¥14.6b, over one year. But on the other hand it also has CN¥54.6b in cash, leading to a CN¥29.6b net cash position.
你可以点击下图查看历史数字,但它显示,截至2023年6月,广汽集团在一年内有250亿元人民币的债务,比146亿元人民币增加。但另一方面,它也有546亿元人民币的现金,净现金状况为296亿元人民币。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20231005/0-de0249e8f932606f2d2684084f988684-0-495b0c6ccf910b00ba19e3b9aaaab8cc.png/big)
How Strong Is Guangzhou Automobile Group's Balance Sheet?
广汽集团的资产负债表有多强劲?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Guangzhou Automobile Group had liabilities of CN¥63.7b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥15.2b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥54.6b in cash and CN¥31.6b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it actually has CN¥7.33b more liquid assets than total liabilities.
根据上次公布的资产负债表,广汽集团在12个月内到期的负债为6,37亿元人民币,12个月后到期的负债为152亿元人民币。抵消这一点的是,它有546亿元人民币的现金和316亿元人民币的应收账款,这些应收账款将在12个月内到期。所以它实际上有 7.33 亿元人民币 更多 流动资产超过总负债。
This short term liquidity is a sign that Guangzhou Automobile Group could probably pay off its debt with ease, as its balance sheet is far from stretched. Simply put, the fact that Guangzhou Automobile Group has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Guangzhou Automobile Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
这种短期流动性表明,广汽集团可能可以轻松偿还债务,因为其资产负债表远未捉襟见肘。简而言之,广汽集团的现金多于债务这一事实可以说很好地表明它可以安全地管理债务。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是起点。但最终,该业务的未来盈利能力将决定广汽集团能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你专注于未来,你可以看看这个 免费的 显示分析师盈利预测的报告。
Over 12 months, Guangzhou Automobile Group reported revenue of CN¥123b, which is a gain of 37%, although it did not report any earnings before interest and tax. Shareholders probably have their fingers crossed that it can grow its way to profits.
在过去的12个月中,广汽集团公布的收入为人民币1,230亿元人民币,增长了37%,尽管它没有报告任何利息和税前收益。股东们可能对它能够以增长的方式获利感到不安。
So How Risky Is Guangzhou Automobile Group?
那么广汽集团的风险有多大?
While Guangzhou Automobile Group lost money on an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) level, it actually booked a paper profit of CN¥5.3b. So taking that on face value, and considering the cash, we don't think its very risky in the near term. Keeping in mind its 37% revenue growth over the last year, we think there's a decent chance the company is on track. There's no doubt fast top line growth can cure all manner of ills, for a stock. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Guangzhou Automobile Group .
尽管广汽集团在利息税前收益(EBIT)水平上亏损,但实际上其账面利润为53亿元人民币。因此,考虑到面值,考虑到现金,我们认为短期内风险不大。考虑到去年其收入增长了37%,我们认为该公司很有可能步入正轨。毫无疑问,收入的快速增长可以治愈股票的各种弊病。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但是,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中——远非如此。为此,你应该意识到 3 个警告标志 我们发现了广汽集团。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
当一切都说完之后,有时候更容易将注意力集中在甚至不需要债务的公司身上。读者可以访问净负债为零的成长型股票清单 100% 免费,现在。
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