Together with the better monthly macro data, Beisen's Sep bookings rebounded strongly. We see the lock-up expiry on 13 Oct as an event that may bring additional volatility and liquidity.
Bookings recovered in Sep; but cannot avoid a full year downward revision: Beisen saw 30+% YoY growth in Sep new bookings, compared to high single-digit YoY growth in Apr-Aug; this helped boost FY1H24 bookings growth to >20%, and it attributed the sharp recovery to accelerated customers decision cycles and better demand. This encouraging change echoes the recent improvement in macro monthly data, and we expect it to sustain with more easing policies and low base. The rebound was particularly strong for CoreHR, while Recruitment and Assessment modules just reversed the previous declining trend. Factoring in the April-August performance due to weak macro and job market, we forecast 12-13% revenue growth in FY1H24 and lower our FY24 forecast from 24% YoY to 17%.
FY1H24 preview: Improving operational metrics; SBC to distort the reported numbers. We expect 7-8ppt GPM improvements (ex-SBC) in 1H, driven by (1) CoreHR is becoming more standard and mature, and (2) rebound in implementation margins without the impact of lockdown, which jointly more than offset the lower revenue contributions from the high-margin Recruitment and Assessment modules. We forecast lower opex ratio across the board, leading to narrower normalized net loss. The reported net loss, however, should widen due to higher SBC amortization (~Rmb300mn) and fair value changes of redeemable convertible preferred shares (Rmb2.8bn), both related to the high valuation at IPO. We note they are both non-cash by nature and recommend focusing on the normalized numbers. We expect the impact from these factors to subside in FY2025.
End of lockup for Round A-E pre-IPO investors could introduce additional volatility and liquidity. Beisen's share price has been quite volatile after being included in the Stock Connect scheme with a record intra-day movement up to 70%. From a trading perspective, the next event to watch in our view will be the lock-up expiry on 13 Oct. Although we expect more selling pressure after that, potential liquidity improvement should help it get onto more investors' radar.
We stay OW on attractive valuation. We lower our FY24/25/26 revenue estimates by 6%/10%/13% to factor in weaker macro and update FX assumption to spot rate. Our PT reduces to HK$10. Its current 2.2x/1.9x FY24/25 EV/sales looks the most attractive to us among peers. Particularly for EV/ARR, the most relevant metric for pure SaaS players, 2.6x/2.1x FY24/25 looks more attractive than peers.
再加上月度宏观数据好转,北森9月份的预订量强劲反弹。我们认为,10月13日的封锁到期可能会带来额外的波动性和流动性。
9月份的预订量有所恢复;但无法避免全年向下修正: 与4月至8月份的高个位数同比增长相比,北森9月份的新预订量同比增长了30%以上;这使得 FY1H24 的预订量增长超过20%,并将急剧复苏归因于客户决策周期的加快和需求的改善。这一令人鼓舞的变化与最近宏观月度数据的改善相呼应,我们预计,随着更多的宽松政策和较低的基数,宏观月度数据的改善将持续下去。CoreHR的反弹尤其强劲,而招聘和评估模块刚刚扭转了之前的下降趋势。考虑到宏观和就业市场疲软导致的4月至8月的表现,我们预测 FY1H24 的收入将增长12-13%,并将24财年的预测从24%下调至17%。
FY1H24 预览:改善运营指标;SBC 扭曲报告的数字。 我们预计,上半年GPM将提高7-8个百分点(除SBC外),这得益于(1)CoreHR变得越来越标准和成熟,以及(2)在没有封锁影响的情况下实施利润率的反弹,这共同抵消了高利润率招聘和评估模块收入较低的贡献。我们预测运营支出比率将全面降低,从而导致正常化净亏损缩小。但是,由于SBC摊销额增加(约3亿元人民币)和可赎回可转换优先股的公允价值变化(28亿元人民币),报告的净亏损应该会扩大,这两者都与首次公开募股的高估值有关。我们注意到它们本质上都是非现金的,因此建议将重点放在标准化数字上。我们预计这些因素的影响将在 FY2025 中减弱。
A-E轮首次公开募股前投资者的封锁结束可能会带来额外的波动性和流动性。 Beisen的股价在被纳入沪深互联互通计划后一直波动很大,盘中涨幅创历史新高,高达70%。从交易的角度来看,我们认为下一个值得关注的事件将是10月13日的封锁到期。尽管我们预计此后会有更大的抛售压力,但潜在的流动性改善应该有助于它引起更多投资者的关注。
我们对具有吸引力的估值保持不变。 我们将24/25/26财年的收入预期下调了6%/10%/13%,以考虑宏观疲软,并将外汇假设更新为即期汇率。我们的PT降至10港元。在同行中,其目前的2.2x/1.9倍电动汽车/销量看起来对我们来说最具吸引力。特别是对于纯SaaS玩家最相关的指标EV/ARR而言,24/25财年的2.6x/2.1倍看起来比同行更具吸引力。