While AVIC Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600765) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 15% in the last quarter. But that doesn't undermine the fantastic longer term performance (measured over five years). To be precise, the stock price is 347% higher than it was five years ago, a wonderful performance by any measure. So it might be that some shareholders are taking profits after good performance. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for the long term, so spare a thought for those caught in the 25% decline over the last twelve months.

Although AVIC Heavy Machinery has shed CN¥3.7b from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

See our latest analysis for AVIC Heavy Machinery

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, AVIC Heavy Machinery achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 53% per year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 35% over the same period. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

It is of course excellent to see how AVIC Heavy Machinery has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for AVIC Heavy Machinery the TSR over the last 5 years was 358%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

AVIC Heavy Machinery shareholders are down 25% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 1.3%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 36% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for AVIC Heavy Machinery you should be aware of.

But note: AVIC Heavy Machinery may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.