Morgan Stanley's Net Interest Income To Slump 14% In FY24: Analyst Cautions
Morgan Stanley's Net Interest Income To Slump 14% In FY24: Analyst Cautions
Despite MS's broad-based 3Q23 beat, Fotheringham lowered estimates by as much as 2% (lower NII and higher credit costs) as NII, a key BMO Capital Markets analyst James Fotheringham reiterated the Outperform rating on Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), trimming the price target to $101 from $102.
蒙特利尔银行资本市场分析师James Ftheringham重申了表现优于大盘的评级摩根士丹利(纽约证券交易所代码：MS)，将目标价从102美元下调至101美元。
The bank reported a Q3 net profit of $2.4 billion, or $1.38 per diluted share, compared to a net income of $2.6 billion or $1.47 in the prior year.
该行公布第三季度净利润为24亿美元，或稀释后每股1.38美元。而上一年的净收入为26亿美元或1.47美元。
The company reported revenues of $13.27 billion, beating the consensus of $12.58 billion.
该公司公布的收入为132.7亿美元，超过了125.8亿美元的共识。
Despite MS's broad-based 3Q23 beat, Fotheringham lowered estimates by as much as 2% (lower NII and higher credit costs) as NII, a key margin driver for the WM segment, declined -9% sequentially as deposit sweep balances fell.
尽管微软第三季度表现强劲，但Ftheringham将预期下调了2%(较低的NII和较高的信贷成本)，因为随着存款清扫余额的下降，WM部门的关键利润率驱动因素NII环比下降了9%。
Higher funding costs resulted from lower deposit sweep balances (down -10% sequentially) as WM clients moved cash to higher-yielding accounts, the analyst adds.
这位分析师补充说，由于理财客户将现金转移到收益更高的账户，存款余额减少(环比下降10%)，导致融资成本上升。
MS expects NII to fall further but did not specify timing or magnitude; relative to consensus (2024 WM NII -9% YoY), the analyst forecasts a more marked decline (-14%).
MS预计NII将进一步下降，但没有具体说明时间或幅度；相对于共识(2024年WM NII-9%同比)，分析师预测降幅更明显(-14%)。
Fotheringham also raised provision forecasts, given higher credit losses on office CRE loans.
Ftheringham还上调了拨备预期，因为写字楼CRE贷款的信贷损失更高。
The analyst lowered MS core EPS estimates by -1% in 2023 (to $5.72 from $5.78) and -2% in 2024 (to $7.01 from $7.14) due to lower-than-previously modeled NII (WM) and higher credit provisions (CRE).
该分析师将微软2023年的核心每股收益预期下调了-1%(从5.78美元下调至5.72美元)，将2024年的预期下调了-2%(从7.14美元下调至7.01美元)，原因是NII(WM)低于之前的模型和信贷拨备(CRE)较高。
Fotheringham's 2025 estimate is essentially unchanged at $8.49 (was $8.47).
福瑟林厄姆对2025年的估计基本上没有变化，仍为8.49美元(原为8.47美元)。
On the positive side, MS still expects to reach 20%+ RoTCE (14% in 3Q23) and 30% WM pre-tax margins (28% in 3Q23) despite funding pressures and capital regulations (and assuming further expense initiatives and normalization of capital markets activity).
积极的一面是，尽管面临资金压力和资本监管(并假设进一步的支出举措和资本市场活动正常化)，MS仍预计达到20%以上的RoTCE(23年第3季度14%)和30%的WM税前利润率(23年第三季度为28%)。
Price Action: MS shares are trading lower by 1.82% to $73.52 on the last check Thursday.
价格行动：在周四的最后一次检查中，MS的股价下跌了1.82%，至73.52美元。
