Is Resideo Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:REZI) Trading At A 28% Discount?
Is Resideo Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:REZI) Trading At A 28% Discount?
Key Insights
主要见解
- The projected fair value for Resideo Technologies is US$20.05 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Current share price of US$14.48 suggests Resideo Technologies is potentially 28% undervalued
- Analyst price target for REZI is US$19.33 which is 3.6% below our fair value estimate
- Resideo Technologies的预计公允价值为20.05美元,基于两阶段自由现金流转股权
- 目前14.48美元的股价表明Resideo Technologies可能被低估了28%
- 分析师对Rezi的目标价为19.33美元,比我们的公允价值估计低3.6%
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Resideo Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:REZI) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
在本文中,我们将通过提取预期的未来现金流并将其折现为现值来估计Resideo Technologies,Inc.(纽约证券交易所代码:REZI)的内在价值。贴现现金流(DCF)模型是我们将应用的工具。信不信由你,遵循它并不太难,正如您将从我们的示例中看到的那样!
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
我们要提醒的是,对一家公司进行估值的方法有很多种,与贴现现金流一样,每种方法在某些情况下都有优缺点。对于那些热衷于学习股票分析的人来说,这里的Simply Wall St.分析模型可能会让你感兴趣。
View our latest analysis for Resideo Technologies
查看我们对Resideo Technologies的最新分析
The Calculation
计算
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我们使用所谓的两阶段模型,也就是说,公司的现金流有两个不同的增长率。一般来说,第一阶段是较高增长阶段,第二阶段是较低增长阶段。首先,我们必须对未来十年的现金流进行估计。由于没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们根据公司最近报告的价值推断出了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
贴现现金流就是这样一种想法,即未来一美元的价值低于现在的一美元,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行贴现,以得出现值估计:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$217.6m | US$223.8m | US$229.6m | US$235.3m | US$241.0m | US$246.5m | US$252.1m | US$257.8m | US$263.4m | US$269.2m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 3.13% | Est @ 2.84% | Est @ 2.63% | Est @ 2.49% | Est @ 2.39% | Est @ 2.31% | Est @ 2.27% | Est @ 2.23% | Est @ 2.21% | Est @ 2.19% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.6% | US$198 | US$186 | US$174 | US$163 | US$152 | US$142 | US$132 | US$124 | US$115 | US$107 |
二零二四年 | 2025年 | 二零二六年 | 2027年 | 2028年 | 2029年 | 二0三0 | 2031年 | 2032年 | 2033年 | |
杠杆式FCF(百万美元) | 2.176亿美元 | 2.238亿美元 | 2.296亿美元 | 2.353亿美元 | 2.410亿美元 | 2.465亿美元 | 2.521亿美元 | 2.578亿美元 | 2.634亿美元 | 2.692亿美元 |
增长率预估来源 | Est@3.13% | Est@2.84% | Est@2.63% | Est@2.49% | Est@2.39% | Est@2.31% | Est@2.27% | Est@2.23% | Est@2.21% | Est@2.19% |
现值(美元,百万)贴现@9.6% | 198美元 | 186美元 | 174美元 | 163美元 | 152美元 | 142美元 | 132美元 | 124美元 | 115美元 | 107美元 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.5b
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=15亿美元
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.6%.
第二阶段也被称为终端价值,这是企业在第一阶段之后的现金流。出于一些原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的国内生产总值增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(2.2%)来估计未来的增长。与10年“增长”期一样,我们使用9.6%的权益成本将未来现金流贴现至当前价值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$269m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (9.6%– 2.2%) = US$3.7b
终端值(TV)=FCF2033年×(1+g)?(r-g)=2.69亿美元×(1+2.2%)?(9.6%-2.2%)=37亿美元
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$3.7b÷ ( 1 + 9.6%)10= US$1.5b
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=37亿美元?(1+9.6%)10=15亿美元
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$3.0b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$14.5, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 28% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
总价值是未来十年的现金流总和加上贴现的终端价值,得出总股权价值,在本例中为30亿美元。在最后一步,我们用股本价值除以流通股的数量。与目前14.5美元的股价相比,该公司的估值似乎略有低估,较目前的股价有28%的折让。然而,估值是不精确的工具,更像是一台望远镜--移动几度,就会到达另一个星系。一定要记住这一点。
![dcf](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20231101/0-6e7a98784830498db57f8a20fa7b8a22-0-ea60fe080cadad59a536b4e7cbc2e848.png/big)
The Assumptions
假设
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Resideo Technologies as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.496. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
我们要指出,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。您不必同意这些输入,我建议您自己重新计算并使用它们。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将Resideo Technologies视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了9.6%,这是基于杠杆率为1.496的测试值。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
SWOT Analysis for Resideo Technologies
Resideo技术的SWOT分析
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- 债务不被视为一种风险。
- Balance sheet summary for REZI.
- Rezi的资产负债表摘要。
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- 在过去的一年里,公司的收益有所下降。
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
- 预计该公司的年收入增长速度将快于美国市场。
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- 基于市盈率和估计公允价值的良好价值。
- Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the American market.
- 据预测,该公司的年收入增速将低于美国市场。
- What else are analysts forecasting for REZI?
- 分析师对雷兹的预测还包括什么?
Looking Ahead:
展望未来:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Resideo Technologies, there are three further aspects you should assess:
就构建你的投资论点而言,估值只是硬币的一面,理想情况下,它不会是你为一家公司仔细审查的唯一分析。贴现现金流模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。相反,它应该被视为“什么假设需要成立才能让这只股票被低估或高估”的指南。例如,公司权益成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。我们能弄清楚为什么该公司的股价低于内在价值吗?对于Resideo Technologies,还有三个方面需要评估:
- Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for Resideo Technologies we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
- Future Earnings: How does REZI's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- 风险:你应该意识到Resideo Technologies的2个警告标志我们在考虑投资该公司之前发现了这一点。
- 未来收益:Rezi的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他稳固的企业:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是强劲业务的基础。为什么不探索我们具有坚实商业基本面的股票的互动列表,看看是否有其他您可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新每只美国股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找出任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。