What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Spire (NYSE:SR) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for Spire, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.054 = US$462m ÷ (US$10b - US$1.5b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).

Therefore, Spire has an ROCE of 5.4%. In absolute terms, that's a low return but it's around the Gas Utilities industry average of 5.9%.

See our latest analysis for Spire

In the above chart we have measured Spire's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Spire here for free.

How Are Returns Trending?

In terms of Spire's historical ROCE trend, it doesn't exactly demand attention. The company has employed 47% more capital in the last five years, and the returns on that capital have remained stable at 5.4%. This poor ROCE doesn't inspire confidence right now, and with the increase in capital employed, it's evident that the business isn't deploying the funds into high return investments.

The Bottom Line On Spire's ROCE

Long story short, while Spire has been reinvesting its capital, the returns that it's generating haven't increased. Additionally, the stock's total return to shareholders over the last five years has been flat, which isn't too surprising. On the whole, we aren't too inspired by the underlying trends and we think there may be better chances of finding a multi-bagger elsewhere.

Spire does come with some risks though, we found 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those doesn't sit too well with us...

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.