Ignoring the stock price of a company, what are the underlying trends that tell us a business is past the growth phase? Typically, we'll see the trend of both return on capital employed (ROCE) declining and this usually coincides with a decreasing amount of capital employed. Basically the company is earning less on its investments and it is also reducing its total assets. In light of that, from a first glance at ManpowerGroup (NYSE:MAN), we've spotted some signs that it could be struggling, so let's investigate.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for ManpowerGroup:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.11 = US$472m ÷ (US$8.6b - US$4.4b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

Thus, ManpowerGroup has an ROCE of 11%. That's a relatively normal return on capital, and it's around the 12% generated by the Professional Services industry.

View our latest analysis for ManpowerGroup

In the above chart we have measured ManpowerGroup's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report for ManpowerGroup.

What Can We Tell From ManpowerGroup's ROCE Trend?

We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at ManpowerGroup. About five years ago, returns on capital were 19%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on ManpowerGroup becoming one if things continue as they have.

On a separate but related note, it's important to know that ManpowerGroup has a current liabilities to total assets ratio of 52%, which we'd consider pretty high. This can bring about some risks because the company is basically operating with a rather large reliance on its suppliers or other sorts of short-term creditors. Ideally we'd like to see this reduce as that would mean fewer obligations bearing risks.

Our Take On ManpowerGroup's ROCE

In summary, it's unfortunate that ManpowerGroup is generating lower returns from the same amount of capital. And, the stock has remained flat over the last five years, so investors don't seem too impressed either. That being the case, unless the underlying trends revert to a more positive trajectory, we'd consider looking elsewhere.

ManpowerGroup does have some risks though, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for ManpowerGroup that you might be interested in.

For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.