Morgan Stanley analyst Jamie Rollo conducted an online survey of 135 corporate travel managers responsible for about $8 billion in travel spend with a global spread of operations, and shared the findings.
The survey, which is Morgan Stanley's 21st annual Global Hotel Corporate Travel Survey, has historically been a reasonable guide to future RevPAR growth, says the analyst.
Respondents expect their 2024 travel budgets to be, on average, ~8% above 2023, writes the analyst.
According to the analyst, it is encouraging that budgets appear to be holding up well given the growing macroeconomic uncertainty, and 8% is well above consensus expectations for just about 2% RevPAR growth in 2024.
About 40% of respondents said that their companies have returned to pre-COVID travel levels, a marked increase compared to the analyst's May 23 / Oct 22 surveys.
Respondents expect 5-6% room rate growth next year for all major global chains like Marriott International (NASDAQ:MAR), Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (NYSE:HLT), InterContinental Hotels Group (NYSE:IHG) and Accor SA (OTC:ACCYY).
Respondents expect to see ~12% of the meetings that would have been physical pre-pandemic to have shifted virtual, lower than the 18-20% shift in previous surveys. This suggests a degree of permanence in the shift to virtual, but the ongoing decline in expectations could provide a tailwind to spend, writes the analyst.
The shift to virtual meetings is bigger for European respondents than U.S. (13% versus 10% for 2024), and is expected to rise in Europe but fall in the U.S. in 2025 (16% versus 9%).
The analyst notes budget hotels tend to outperform upscale in tough economic environments, and while the trend is negative for some of the U.S.listed companies that skew to higher chainscales like Hyatt Hotels Corporation (NYSE:H), Hilton and Marriott, it is positive for both the European-listed companies that skew midscale/economy and those in the U.S. focused on these segments like Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc (NYSE:WH) and Choice Hotels International, Inc. (NYSE:CHH).
Also, the analyst says that every major hotel company in the U.S. and Europe reported a stronger Q3 than Q2, in terms of RevPAR relative to 2019, further solidifying the positive outlook for hotels.
摩根士丹利分析师Jamie Rollo对135位企业差旅经理进行了在线调查，这些经理的差旅支出约为80亿美元，业务遍及全球，并分享了调查结果。
该分析师表示，该调查是摩根士丹利的第21次年度全球酒店企业差旅调查，历来是未来RevPAR增长的合理指导。
分析师写道，受访者预计，他们2024年的差旅预算平均将比2023年高出约8％。
这位分析师表示，令人鼓舞的是，鉴于宏观经济的不确定性增加，预算似乎表现良好，8％远高于共识预期，即2024年RevPAR增长仅为2％左右。
大约40％的受访者表示，他们的公司已恢复到COVID之前的旅行水平，与分析师5月23日/10月22日的调查相比，这一数字显著增加。
受访者预计，所有主要的全球连锁店明年房费将增长5-6％，例如 万豪国际 （纳斯达克股票代码：MAR）， 希尔顿全球控股公司 （纽约证券交易所代码：HLT）， 洲际酒店集团 （纽约证券交易所代码：IHG）和 Accor SA （场外交易代码：ACCYY）。
受访者预计，在疫情前本来是物理会议的会议中，约有12％会转为虚拟会议，低于之前调查中18-20％的变化。分析师写道，这表明向虚拟转变有一定程度的持久性，但预期的持续下降可能会为支出提供顺风。
欧洲受访者向虚拟会议的转变比美国的受访者更大（2024年为13％对10％），预计到2025年，欧洲将上升，但美国将下降（16％对9％）。
分析师指出，在艰难的经济环境中，廉价酒店的表现往往优于高档酒店，而对于一些倾向于更高连锁规模的美国上市公司来说，这种趋势是负面的，例如 凯悦酒店集团 纽约证券交易所代码：H）、希尔顿和万豪酒店，这对于偏向中型/经济的欧洲上市公司和专注于这些细分市场的美国上市公司来说都是积极的，例如 温德姆酒店及度假村公司 （纽约证券交易所代码：WH）和 Choice 酒店国际有限公司 （纽约证券交易所代码：CHH）。
此外，该分析师表示，就RevPAR而言，美国和欧洲的每家主要酒店公司都报告称，与2019年相比，第三季度的表现强于第二季度，这进一步巩固了酒店的乐观前景。
