share_log

Powell Closes The Door On Early Rate Cut Hopes: Stocks, Bonds Tumble While Dollar Rallies

Powell Closes The Door On Early Rate Cut Hopes: Stocks, Bonds Tumble While Dollar Rallies

鲍威尔关闭了提前降息希望的大门:股票、债券暴跌,美元上涨
Benzinga ·  2023/11/09 15:10

While inflation has seen some improvement, it remains above the Federal Reserve's target, Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks Thursday at a conference hosted by the International Monetary Fund.

主席,尽管通货膨胀有所改善,但仍高于美联储的目标 杰罗姆·鲍威尔 在周四主办的一次会议上发表讲话时说 国际货币基金组织

He highlighted the need for continued efforts to bring inflation back to its desired level, emphasizing that there is still a "long way to go" to get to the 2% target.

他强调需要继续努力使通货膨胀率恢复到预期水平,并强调要实现2%的目标还有 “很长的路要走”。

The event, featuring renowned economists like Gita Gopinath, the first deputy managing director at the IMF, and Harvard economics professor Kenneth Rogoff, was a platform for Powell to discuss the state of the U.S. economy, following the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady at 5.25%-5.5% last week.

该活动邀请了知名经济学家,例如 Gita Gopinath,国际货币基金组织第一副董事总经理,哈佛经济学教授 肯尼思·罗格夫,这是继美联储上周决定将利率稳定在5.25%-5.5%之后,鲍威尔讨论美国经济状况的平台。

Powell noted an improved supply-demand balance in the labor market, which was confirmed by the latest data showing employment growth moderating more than predicted in October. Yet Powell said he anticipates the robust GDP growth experienced in the third quarter will likely moderate in the coming quarters as the economy adjusts to new conditions.

鲍威尔指出,劳动力市场的供需平衡有所改善,最新数据证实了这一点,显示10月份就业增长放缓幅度超过预期。然而,鲍威尔表示,他预计,随着经济适应新条件,第三季度强劲的国内生产总值增长可能会在未来几个季度放缓。

Powell's speech took a surprising turn when climate activists interrupted the conference.

当气候活动家打断会议时,鲍威尔的讲话发生了令人惊讶的转变。

After the brief interruption, Powell reiterated the Fed is not yet confident that it has achieved a sufficiently restrictive monetary stance. The concern, he said, is that unexpected fluctuations, or "head fakes," in inflation could still occur and necessitate a flexible approach.

在短暂的中断之后,鲍威尔重申,美联储尚未确信自己已经采取了足够严格的货币立场。他说,令人担忧的是,通货膨胀仍可能出现意想不到的波动或 “假货”,因此需要采取灵活的方法。

A decline in inflation is likely to result from tight monetary policy, the Fed chair said.

美联储主席说,通货膨胀率下降可能是紧缩货币政策造成的。

One of the more notable points raised by Powell was his questioning of the conventional wisdom that monetary policy should always overlook supply shocks.

鲍威尔提出的更值得注意的观点之一是他质疑货币政策应始终忽视供应冲击的传统观点。

He cautioned against ignoring supply shocks that have a restrictive impact on the economic outlook, as has been witnessed in recent years. Powell suggested that such shocks might require a monetary policy response, challenging traditional thinking on this matter.

他警告说,不要像近年来目睹的那样,忽视对经济前景具有限制性影响的供应冲击。鲍威尔表示,此类冲击可能需要货币政策应对措施,这挑战了关于这个问题的传统思维。

Powell concluded by addressing the ongoing debate regarding the possibility of a zero interest rate world. He expressed uncertainty about whether the structural factors that have pushed interest rates lower will persist in the future.

最后,鲍威尔谈到了正在进行的关于零利率世界可能性的辩论。他对推动降低利率的结构性因素在未来是否会持续存在表示不确定性。

Market Reactions To Powell's Remarks

市场对鲍威尔言论的反应

Powell's remarks were perceived as hawkish by market participants. Traders in U.S. short-term interest rate futures have postponed their expectations for the first Federal Reserve rate cut, moving it from May to June, a shift that occurred following Powell's remarks.

市场参与者认为鲍威尔的言论是鹰派的。美国短期利率期货交易者推迟了对美联储首次降息的预期,将其从5月移至6月,这一转变是在鲍威尔发表讲话后发生的。

The cumulative rate cuts priced by the market for 2024 moved from nearly a full percentage point to 86 basis points.

市场定价的2024年累计降息幅度从近整整一个百分点上升至86个基点。

The dollar rallied and the S&P 500 Index declined as of 2:40 p.m. ET. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), as tracked by the $Powershares Exchange Traded Fd Tst Db Us Dollar Index Bullish Fund Etf (UUP.US)$, was 0.4% higher, while the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ fell 0.8%.

截至美国东部时间下午2点40分,美元上涨,标准普尔500指数下跌。美元指数(DXY),由以下机构追踪 $美元ETF-PowerShares DB (UUP.US)$,上涨了0.4%,而 $SPDR 标普500指数ETF (SPY.US)$ 下跌0.8%。

Treasury yields spiked, with the 30-year yield rising 18 basis points to 4.8%. The 10-year yield was up 15 basis points to 4.64%. Investors fled bonds, as the $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ tumbled 2.4%.

美国国债收益率飙升,30年期国债收益率上涨18个基点至4.8%。10年期国债收益率上涨15个基点至4.64%。投资者逃离了债券,因为 $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares (TLT.US)$ 下跌了2.4%。

Chart: Markets React To Powell's IMF Speech

图表:市场对鲍威尔国际货币基金组织讲话的反应

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
    抢沙发