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November FOMC Minutes: Fed Leans Toward Rate Stability as Inflation Eases

November FOMC Minutes: Fed Leans Toward Rate Stability as Inflation Eases

联邦公开市场委员会11月会议纪要:随着通货膨胀的缓解,美联储倾向于利率稳定
Benzinga ·  2023/11/22 03:33

Fed participants determined the current interest rate level of between 5.25% and 5.5% is restrictive and putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation, Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the Fed's November's meeting revealed Tuesday.

联邦公开市场委员会周二公布的美联储11月会议纪要显示,美联储参与者认为,目前在5.25%至5.5%之间的利率水平具有限制性,并给经济活动和通货膨胀带来下行压力。

This stance signals a potential end to the Fed's intensive rate hike campaign initiated last year, aligning with market forecasts and recent encouraging inflation data. Fed members also underlined that financial conditions tightened significantly in recent months.

这一立场标志着美联储去年发起的密集加息运动可能结束,这与市场预测和最近令人鼓舞的通胀数据一致。美联储成员还强调,近几个月来金融状况大幅收紧。

Earlier this month, the Fed unanimously decided to maintain the federal funds rate unchanged, in a move likely influenced by a series of lower-than-predicted inflation reports.

本月早些时候,美联储一致决定维持联邦基金利率不变,此举可能受到一系列低于预期的通胀报告的影响。

The majority of participants still continue to perceive upside risks for inflation and a potential decline in economic activity. They observed that additional monetary policy tightening would be warranted if incoming data suggests inadequate progress toward the committee's inflation goal.

大多数参与者仍然认为通货膨胀的上行风险和经济活动可能下降。他们观察到,如果传入的数据表明委员会在实现通货膨胀目标方面进展不足,则有必要进一步收紧货币政策。

In his recent remarks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of proceeding "carefully," effectively suggesting a reduced likelihood of another rate hike before the year's end.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在最近的讲话中强调了 “谨慎” 行事的重要性,这实际上表明在年底之前再次加息的可能性降低了。

Nevertheless, during a panel discussion at the International Monetary Fund earlier this month, Powell cautioned that "inflation has given us a few head fakes," adding that "if it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so."

尽管如此,在本月早些时候国际货币基金组织的一次小组讨论中,鲍威尔警告说,“通货膨胀给了我们一些假象”,并补充说:“如果需要进一步收紧政策,我们会毫不犹豫地这样做。”

Before the release of the minutes, markets had already priced in the likelihood of unchanged rates at the Dec. 13 meeting. Looking ahead, traders are speculating about four possible rate reductions in the next year, with the first expected as soon as May.

在会议纪要公布之前,市场已经在12月13日的会议上对利率保持不变的可能性进行了定价。展望未来,交易员猜测明年可能降息四次,第一次预计最快将在5月降息。

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