We Think Innovation New Material Technology (SHSE:600361) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think Innovation New Material Technology (SHSE:600361) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Innovation New Material Technology Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600361) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
霍华德·马克斯说得很好,他说:“我担心的是永久亏损的可能性... 我认识的每位务实投资者都很担心,而不是担心股价的波动。”因此,很明显,当你考虑任何给定股票的风险时,你需要考虑债务,因为过多的债务会使公司陷入困境。我们可以看到,创新新材料科技股份有限公司(SHSE:600361)确实在其业务中使用了债务。但是这笔债务是股东关心的问题吗?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
债务会带来什么风险?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
当企业无法轻易履行这些义务时,无论是通过自由现金流还是以诱人的价格筹集资金,债务和其他负债就会面临风险。如果情况变得非常糟糕,贷款人可以控制业务。尽管这种情况不太常见,但我们经常看到负债公司永久稀释股东,因为贷款人迫使他们以低价筹集资金。当然,债务可能是企业的重要工具,尤其是资本密集型企业。当我们研究债务水平时,我们首先要同时考虑现金和债务水平。
Check out our latest analysis for Innovation New Material Technology
查看我们对创新新材料技术的最新分析
What Is Innovation New Material Technology's Debt?
创新新材料技术的债务是什么?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2023 Innovation New Material Technology had CN¥7.34b of debt, an increase on CN¥1.73b, over one year. On the flip side, it has CN¥4.16b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥3.18b.
你可以点击下图查看历史数字,但它显示,截至2023年9月,创新新材料技术在一年内有73.4亿元人民币的债务,比17.73亿元人民币增加。另一方面,它拥有41.6亿元人民币的现金,净负债约为31.8亿元人民币。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20231125/0-257aa14bdf3b8139c2cd3384e6838293-0-f4af033ba8dd60874d45a5a0a6b71db0.png/big)
How Strong Is Innovation New Material Technology's Balance Sheet?
创新新材料科技的资产负债表有多强?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Innovation New Material Technology had liabilities of CN¥7.09b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥2.67b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥4.16b as well as receivables valued at CN¥3.38b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥2.22b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
根据上次公布的资产负债表,创新新材料科技的负债为709亿元人民币,在12个月后到期的负债为26.7亿元人民币。为了抵消这些债务,它有41.6亿元人民币的现金以及价值33.8亿元人民币的应收账款,将在12个月内到期。因此,其负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的总和高出22.2亿元人民币。
Given Innovation New Material Technology has a market capitalization of CN¥21.5b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
鉴于创新新材料科技的市值为215亿元人民币,很难相信这些负债会构成太大威胁。但是,我们确实认为值得关注其资产负债表的实力,因为它可能会随着时间的推移而发生变化。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
为了扩大公司相对于收益的负债规模,我们计算其净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA),将其利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以利息支出(利息保障)。因此,我们将债务与收益的关系考虑在内,包括和不包括折旧和摊销费用。
Innovation New Material Technology has net debt worth 1.7 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 4.4 times the interest expense. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. Importantly, Innovation New Material Technology's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 44% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Innovation New Material Technology can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Innovation New Material Technology的净负债价值是息税折旧摊销前利润的1.7倍,这并不算高,但其利息覆盖面看起来有点偏低,息税前利润仅为利息支出的4.4倍。尽管这并不让我们太担心,但这确实表明利息支付有些负担。重要的是,创新新材料科技的息税前利润在过去十二个月中下降了惊人的44%。如果这种收益趋势继续下去,那么偿还债务就像把猫放到过山车上一样容易。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但最终,该业务的未来盈利能力将决定创新新材料技术能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你专注于未来,你可以查看这份显示分析师利润预测的免费报告。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Innovation New Material Technology saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
最后,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润根本无法削减债务。因此,我们显然需要研究息税前利润是否带来了相应的自由现金流。在过去的三年中,创新新材料科技的自由现金流总额为负。尽管这可能是增长支出的结果,但它确实使债务风险大大增加。
Our View
我们的观点
On the face of it, Innovation New Material Technology's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its level of total liabilities is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that Innovation New Material Technology's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Innovation New Material Technology (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) .
从表面上看,Innovation New Meterial Technology将息税前利润转换为自由现金流,这使我们对该股进行了试探,其息税前利润增长率并不比一年中最繁忙的夜晚那家空荡荡的餐厅更具吸引力。但好的一面是,它的总负债水平是一个好兆头,也使我们更加乐观。从大局来看,我们似乎很清楚,创新新材料科技对债务的使用正在给公司带来风险。如果一切顺利,可能会得到回报,但这笔债务的不利之处是永久损失的风险更大。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但是,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中——远非如此。为此,你应该了解我们在创新新材料技术中发现的3个警告信号(包括一个让我们有点不舒服的警告)。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果你有兴趣投资能够在没有债务负担的情况下增加利润的企业,请查看这份资产负债表上有净现金的成长型企业的免费清单。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。