The latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis reveals that the U.S. economy displayed robust growth in the third quarter of 2023, surpassing initial estimates and posting the strongest expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021.
The second estimate indicates that the annualized GDP growth rate for Q3 2023 stood at 5.2%, outpacing the preliminary figure of 5%.
Key Revisions To Q3 GDP
One of the notable revisions in this report was in nonresidential investment, which was originally estimated to have fallen by 0.1%. However, it was updated to show a surprising 1.3% increase.
This upward revision can be attributed to a smaller decline in equipment (-3.5% compared to the initial estimate of -3.8%) and a remarkable surge of 6.9% in structures (versus the initial estimate of 1.6%), led by commercial and health care (mainly warehouses).
Furthermore, the residential investment sector exhibited stronger signs of growth. It recorded a growth rate of 6.2%, significantly higher than the initially anticipated 3.9%, marking its first positive growth in nearly two years.
Private inventories also made a significant contribution to the overall growth, adding 1.4 percentage points to the GDP, surpassing the previous estimate of 1.32 percentage points. Government spending experienced faster growth as well, expanding by 5.5% compared to the earlier estimate of 4.6%.
Consumer spending, although slightly lower than the preliminary estimate (3.6% versus 4%), still posted its most substantial gain since Q4 2021. The moderation in consumer spending was primarily attributed to a slowdown in services spending. Exports surged by 6%, albeit slightly below the initial estimate of 6.2%, while imports increased at a slower rate, growing by 5.2% compared to the initial estimate of 5.7%.
The acceleration in GDP for Q3 2023, when compared to the previous quarter, can be attributed to increased consumer spending, private inventory investment, and a notable uptick in exports.
Market Reactions: Dollar Sees Some Respite, Treasury Yields Stay Flat
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), tracked by Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:UUP), reacted positively to the upward revision in GDP figures.
However, the dollar index remains below the 103 level, which was last seen in mid-August.
Treasury yields were relatively stable, with the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, tracked by the US 10 Year Treasury Note ETF (NYSE:UTEN), trading at 4.30% on Wednesday.
According to CME Group's Fed Watch Tool, market participants currently assign a 77% chance of a Fed rate cut occurring as early as May 2024, and they are currently factoring in five rate cuts by December 2024 at a 52% probability.
Read now: Bill Ackman Bets On Potential Fed Interest Rate Cut As Soon As Q1 Next Year
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经济分析局的最新报告显示,美国经济在2023年第三季度表现出强劲增长,超过了初步预期,创下了自2021年第四季度以来最强劲的扩张。
第二项估计表明,2023年第三季度的年化GDP增长率为5.2%,超过了5%的初步数字。
对第三季度国内生产总值的关键修订
该报告中值得注意的修正之一是非住宅投资,最初估计非住宅投资下降了0.1%。但是,它已更新,显示出惊人的1.3%的增长。
这种向上修正可以归因于在商业和医疗保健(主要是仓库)的带动下,设备下降幅度较小(-3.5%,而最初估计为-3.8%),建筑物显著激增6.9%(而最初估计为1.6%)。
此外,住宅投资行业表现出更强劲的增长迹象。它的增长率为6.2%,大大高于最初预期的3.9%,这是近两年来的首次正增长。
私人库存也为整体增长做出了重大贡献,使国内生产总值增加了1.4个百分点,超过了先前估计的1.32个百分点。政府支出也实现了更快的增长,增长了5.5%,而先前估计的4.6%。
尽管消费者支出略低于初步估计(3.6%对4%),但仍创下了自2021年第四季度以来的最大增幅。消费者支出的放缓主要归因于服务支出放缓。出口激增了6%,尽管略低于最初估计的6.2%,而进口增长速度较慢,与最初估计的5.7%相比增长了5.2%。
与上一季度相比,2023年第三季度GDP的加速可以归因于消费者支出的增加、私人库存投资和出口的显著增长。
市场反应:美元出现喘息机会,美国国债收益率保持平稳
景顺数据库美元指数看涨基金(纽约证券交易所代码:UUP)追踪的美元指数(DXY)对国内生产总值数据的向上修正反应积极。
但是,美元指数仍低于103水平,该水平最后一次出现在8月中旬。
美国国债收益率相对稳定,美国10年期国债ETF(纽约证券交易所代码:UTEN)追踪的10年期美国国债收益率周三交易价格为4.30%。
根据芝加哥商品交易所集团的美联储观察工具,市场参与者目前认为美联储最早在2024年5月降息的可能性为77%,他们目前将到2024年12月降息五次的可能性考虑在内,概率为52%。
立即阅读: 比尔·阿克曼押注美联储可能最快在明年第一季度降息
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