Dollar Dumps In November As Fed Rate Cut Optimism Increases
Dollar Dumps In November As Fed Rate Cut Optimism Increases
The U.S. dollar made something of a comeback in the last two days of November, following a month of losses as markets leveraged rising expectations the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in the first quarter of 2024.
由于市场对美联储将于2024年第一季度开始降息的预期不断上升，美元在经历了一个月的跌势之后，在11月的最后两天有所回升。
Although the dollar index (DXY) was fractionally lower on Friday, during the final two days of November the DXY gained a cumulative 0.6%.
尽管周五美元指数（DXY）小幅走低，但在11月的最后两天，美元指数累计上涨0.6％。
But analysts believed the rally would be short-lived while equities continued to surge and rate cut optimism remained high. Bank of America FX strategist Athanasios Vamvakidis said: "We are bearish on the dollar into 2024 — we could see a correction from oversold positions into the year end, but would sell the bounce for a 2024 decline."
但分析师认为，涨势将是短暂的，而股市继续上涨，降息的乐观情绪仍然很高。美国银行外汇策略师阿萨纳西奥斯·瓦姆瓦基迪斯表示：“到2024年，我们将看跌美元——我们可能会看到超卖头寸在年底之前出现回调，但会卖出反弹，使2024年下跌。”
Also Read: Dollar Decline: Stock Market Rally Explains 70% Of Recent US Dollar Downtrend
另请阅读：美元下跌：股市反弹解释了近期美元下跌趋势的70％
Dollar Decoupling
美元脱钩
In November, as investors' appetite for risk led to major gains in the equity markets, the dollar largely diverged from its usual drivers tied to the economy, geopolitics, and policy. Instead, it became the anti-equity trade.
11月，由于投资者的风险偏好导致股市大幅上涨，美元与经济、地缘政治和政策相关的通常驱动因素在很大程度上有所不同。相反，它变成了反股权交易。
As the S&P 500 stock index climbed 8.9% during November, the dollar index (DXY) fell 3.1%. During the same period, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), an exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500, gained 9.1%.
标准普尔500指数在11月份上涨8.9％，美元指数（DXY）下跌3.1％。同期，追踪标准普尔500指数的交易所交易基金SPDR标准普尔500指数ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：SPY）上涨9.1％。
Among the major currency crosses, the dollar's worst performance during November was against the New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) — down 4.6%. The dollar lost 3.6% versus the British pound (GBP/USD) and was down 2.6% against the euro (EUR/USD).
在主要货币交叉盘中，美元在11月份表现最差的是兑新西兰元（NZD/USD），下跌4.6％。美元兑英镑（英镑/美元）下跌3.6％，兑欧元（欧元/美元）下跌2.6％。
The performance of exchange traded funds tracking investment behavior in the dollar also illustrated market sentiment towards the U.S. currency. The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) fell 2.5% during November, while the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (NYSE:UDN) rose 3.3%.
追踪美元投资行为的交易所交易基金的表现也说明了市场对美元的情绪。景顺数据库美元指数看涨基金ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：UUP）在11月份下跌2.5％，而景顺数据库美元指数看跌基金（纽约证券交易所代码：UDN）上涨3.3％。
Treasury Market Rally — Yields Retreat From 5%
美国国债市场反弹—收益率从5％回落
The biggest market driver during the month was rising expectations that the Federal Reserve had ended its cycle of interest rate hikes, after the central bank left its main Fed Funds Rate at 5.25%-5.5% at its September and November policy meetings.
本月最大的市场驱动力是人们对美联储结束加息周期的预期不断提高，此前美联储在9月和11月的政策会议上将主要联邦基金利率维持在5.25％-5.5％。
Expectations of a more dovish Fed at the Dec. 13 meeting were further driven by data that showed inflation becoming more benign. Consumer price data in early November showed the annual headline inflation rate dropping to 3.2%, while the rate as measured by personal consumption expenditures — the Fed's favored measure — fell to 3%. The Fed's target rate is 2%.
数据显示，通货膨胀变得更加温和，这进一步推动了人们对美联储在12月13日会议上表现更加鸽派的预期。11月初的消费者物价数据显示，年度总体通货膨胀率降至3.2％，而以个人消费支出（美联储青睐的衡量标准）衡量的通货膨胀率降至3％。美联储的目标利率为2％。
Hopes of a more dovish Fed also spurred a rally in the U.S. government bonds market. Prices climbed, driving yields lower from 16-year highs. Having peaked at 5.02% in October, the 10-year Treasury yield was down to 4.32% on Friday.
美联储更加鸽派的希望也刺激了美国政府债券市场的上涨。价格攀升，推动收益率从16年高点下降。10年期美国国债收益率在10月份达到5.02％的峰值，周五跌至4.32％。
The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:AGG), an exchange traded fund that tracks the broad U.S. bond market, gained 4.3% during November.
追踪整个美国债券市场的交易所交易基金iShares Core美国综合债券ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：AGG）在11月份上涨4.3％。
Now Read: November Rally Sets Treasury Bonds On Track For Best Month In 40 Years
立即阅读：11月的涨势使美国国债有望创下40年来最好的月份
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