The Soho Holly Corporation (SHSE:600128) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 39%. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 52% in the last year.
Although its price has surged higher, there still wouldn't be many who think Soho Holly's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.5x is worth a mention when the median P/S in China's Retail Distributors industry is similar at about 0.7x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
Check out our latest analysis for Soho Holly
How Has Soho Holly Performed Recently?
For example, consider that Soho Holly's financial performance has been pretty ordinary lately as revenue growth is non-existent. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think this benign revenue growth rate might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be feeling hopeful about the future direction of the share price.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Soho Holly, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.
Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?
Soho Holly's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's top line as the year before. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 45% overall rise in revenue, in spite of its uninspiring short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders will be pleased, but also have some questions to ponder about the last 12 months.
Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 18% shows it's noticeably less attractive.
With this information, we find it interesting that Soho Holly is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.
What We Can Learn From Soho Holly's P/S?
Soho Holly's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Soho Holly's average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, the probability of a share price decline will become quite substantial, placing shareholders at risk.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Soho Holly that you should be aware of.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.