With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 5.6x Avnet, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVT) may be sending very bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 17x and even P/E's higher than 33x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, Avnet has been doing quite well of late. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, possibly more than the market, which has repressed the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
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Does Growth Match The Low P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like Avnet's to be considered reasonable.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 11%. However, due to its less than impressive performance prior to this period, EPS growth is practically non-existent over the last three years overall. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the seven analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 31% over the next year. With the market predicted to deliver 10% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.
In light of this, it's understandable that Avnet's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
The Final Word
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Avnet maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast for sliding earnings, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Avnet (of which 2 can't be ignored!) you should know about.
If you're unsure about the strength of Avnet's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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