Investors turn to Semiconductor ETFs as individual stock selection became increasingly difficult
Investors turn to Semiconductor ETFs as individual stock selection became increasingly difficult
Investing in semiconductor ETFs is an alternative to individual tech stocks. ETFs offer a strategic advantage for those looking to tap into the potential of the semiconductor industry without the heightened volatility that individual stock picks can bring. This not only mitigates the impact of any single company's performance but also captures the sector's overall growth.
投资半导体ETF是个别科技股的替代方案。对于那些希望在不增加个股选择可能带来的波动性的情况下挖掘半导体行业潜力的人来说，ETF提供了战略优势。这不仅可以减轻任何一家公司业绩的影响，还可以反映该行业的整体增长。
■ Investors shift from individual stock selection to thematic investment
■ 投资者从个人选股转向主题投资
Most semiconductor industry segments have seen gains in 2023, including manufacturing equipment, semis materials, and autonomous driving chips, not just AI chip companies represented by Nvidia.
大多数半导体行业在2023年都出现了增长，包括制造设备、半导体材料和自动驾驶芯片，而不仅仅是以英伟达为代表的人工智能芯片公司。
Investors piled into semiconductor ETFs this year, pushing the market size to $32 billion in assets under management. That figure doubles to $64 billion when including themes where sectors overlap -- AI, 5G, metaverse, autonomous and electric vehicles, and robotics.
今年，投资者涌入半导体ETF，将市场规模推高至320亿美元的管理资产。如果将人工智能、5G、元宇宙、自动驾驶和电动汽车以及机器人等领域重叠的主题包括在内，这一数字翻了一番，达到640亿美元。
Different from in-depth analysis of each individual company's prospects, semiconductor ETFs present a more balanced investment approach, harnessing the collective momentum of the industry's key players.
与对每家公司前景的深入分析不同，半导体ETF提供了一种更加平衡的投资方法，利用了该行业主要参与者的集体势头。
For semiconductor ETFs, the fee structure is quite competitive. Among the top 15 largest ETFs in this segment, six feature an identical expense ratio of 0.35%, the lowest relative to other peers.
对于半导体ETF而言，费用结构极具竞争力。在该细分市场中排名前15位的ETF中，有6只的支出比率相同，为0.35％，与其他同行相比最低。
■ Japan Semiconductor ETF Outperforms This Year
■ 日本半导体ETF今年表现跑赢大盘
In 2023, the Global X Japan Semi ETF (2644 JP) outperformed, delivering an 86% return compared to the average 58% seen by the top 15 semiconductor ETFs. The standout performance was heavily influenced by regional investment strategies; the emphasis on Japanese semiconductor entities was a distinguishing feature. The prominence of these Japanese companies within the portfolio may have been advantageous, especially in light of tensions between China and the US. Disco (up 173% this year), Advantest (122%) and Renesas Electronics (113%) contributed the most to 2644 JP's outperformance, benefiting from Japan's strengths in high-end semiconductor materials (photoresists, wafers, target materials, etc.)
2023年，Global X日本半导体ETF（2644日元）跑赢大盘，回报率为86％，而排名前15位的半导体ETF的平均回报率为58％。出色的业绩在很大程度上受到区域投资策略的影响；对日本半导体实体的关注是一个显著特征。这些日本公司在投资组合中的突出地位可能是有利的，特别是在中美关系紧张的情况下。受益于日本在高端半导体材料（光刻胶、晶圆、目标材料等）方面的优势，迪斯科（今年上涨173％）、爱德万测试（122％）和瑞萨电子（113％）对2644日本的跑赢大盘的贡献最大
There appears to be a notable link between assets under management (AUM) and performance. Excluding the JP market, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH US) stands out with the highest AUM and the most impressive annualized return since its launch.
管理的资产（AUM）与业绩之间似乎存在显著的联系。不包括日本市场，VanEck半导体ETF（SMH US）以其自推出以来最高的资产管理规模和最令人印象深刻的年化回报率脱颖而出。
Return analysis also shows SPDR S&P Semi ETF (XSD US) was the worst performing semi ETF. The ETF tracks an equal-weighted index of semiconductor stocks, and tilts its portfolio away from large, well-known companies and toward smaller ones.
回报分析还显示，SPDR标普半ETF（XSD US）是表现最差的半ETF。该ETF追踪半导体股票的等权重指数，并将其投资组合从大型知名公司向小型公司倾斜。
■ The semis industry will continue to benefit from growing demand
■ 半导体行业将继续受益于不断增长的需求
The semiconductor sector's current PE of 22x, surpassing the five-year average of 18x, may present a challenge for widespread revaluation within the industry, with investors highly selective across end markets. Despite this, the year 2024 is anticipated to be a period of strong fundamental growth.
半导体行业目前的市盈率为22倍，超过了五年平均水平的18倍，这可能对该行业的广泛重估构成挑战，投资者对终端市场具有高度选择性。尽管如此，预计2024年将是基本面强劲增长的时期。
According to Gartner, semiconductor sales are expected to increase from US$527 billion in 2023 to US$1,141 billion in 2032. Among them, logic chips are still the main growth driver.
根据Gartner的数据，半导体销售额预计将从2023年的5270亿美元增加到2032年的11.41亿美元。其中，逻辑芯片仍然是主要的增长动力。
Parallel-process computing, high-bandwidth memory and high-speed data transmission could be required for AI computing, boosting demand for AI application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), graphic processing units (GPUs) and high-speed network chips. Demand for compound semiconductors for electric vehicles and next-generation memory chips could also rise.
人工智能计算可能需要并行处理计算、高带宽存储器和高速数据传输，从而推动了对人工智能应用专用集成电路 (ASIC)、图形处理单元 (GPU) 和高速网络芯片的需求。电动汽车和下一代存储芯片对化合物半导体的需求也可能增加。
■ What advanced technologies are worth looking forward to？
■ 哪些先进技术值得期待？
ASML's next-generation 3800E EUV lithography machine might be deployed in 2023, supporting plans by Intel, TSMC and Samsung to start producing 2nm chips in 2025. The system's bigger and improved mirrors enhance chip-manufacturing yield.
ASML的下一代3800E EUV光刻机可能会在2023年部署，以支持英特尔、台积电和三星在2025年开始生产2纳米芯片的计划。该系统的更大、经过改进的反射镜可提高芯片制造良率。
There is also potential for strong growth in demand for production tools that make advanced package substrates, including lithography tools, laser drills, dicers, bonders and testers. Besides, demand for chip-on-wafer-on-substrate (CoWoS), an advanced package solution developed by TSMC, is also likely to increase due to the spread of ChatGPT and other generative AI applications.
对制造先进封装基板的生产工具（包括光刻工具、激光钻头、切片机、粘合机和测试仪）的需求也有可能强劲增长。此外，由于 ChatGPT 和其他生成式 AI 应用的普及，对台积电开发的先进封装解决方案基板芯片 (CowOS) 的需求也可能会增加。
Source: TSMC
来源：台积电
In general, the advancement of artificial intelligence and the progress of technology are set to benefit every segment of the semiconductor industry, providing a solid foundation for the continued growth and relevance of semiconductor ETFs.
总的来说，人工智能的进步和技术进步将使半导体行业的每个细分市场受益，为半导体ETF的持续增长和相关性奠定坚实的基础。