China Environmental Resources Group Limited (HKG:1130) shares have retraced a considerable 39% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. Still, a bad month hasn't completely ruined the past year with the stock gaining 26%, which is great even in a bull market.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, you could still be forgiven for thinking China Environmental Resources Group is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 1.3x, considering almost half the companies in Hong Kong's Trade Distributors industry have P/S ratios below 0.6x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.
View our latest analysis for China Environmental Resources Group
What Does China Environmental Resources Group's Recent Performance Look Like?
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at China Environmental Resources Group over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for China Environmental Resources Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.
How Is China Environmental Resources Group's Revenue Growth Trending?
China Environmental Resources Group's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 9.4%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year revenue growth is still a noteworthy 12% in total. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.
Weighing that recent medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 3.5% shows it's about the same on an annualised basis.
In light of this, it's curious that China Environmental Resources Group's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Nevertheless, they may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.
The Final Word
There's still some elevation in China Environmental Resources Group's P/S, even if the same can't be said for its share price recently. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
Our look into China Environmental Resources Group has shown that it currently trades on a higher than expected P/S since its recent three-year growth is only in line with the wider industry forecast. When we see average revenue with industry-like growth combined with a high P/S, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with the industry too. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 6 warning signs with China Environmental Resources Group (at least 4 which make us uncomfortable), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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