What financial metrics can indicate to us that a company is maturing or even in decline? Typically, we'll see the trend of both return on capital employed (ROCE) declining and this usually coincides with a decreasing amount of capital employed. Basically the company is earning less on its investments and it is also reducing its total assets. Having said that, after a brief look, Visual China GroupLtd (SZSE:000681) we aren't filled with optimism, but let's investigate further.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Visual China GroupLtd, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.022 = CN¥84m ÷ (CN¥4.2b - CN¥469m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

So, Visual China GroupLtd has an ROCE of 2.2%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Interactive Media and Services industry average of 5.5%.

View our latest analysis for Visual China GroupLtd

In the above chart we have measured Visual China GroupLtd's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Visual China GroupLtd here for free.

The Trend Of ROCE

We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at Visual China GroupLtd. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 11% that they were earning five years ago. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Visual China GroupLtd becoming one if things continue as they have.

The Bottom Line

In summary, it's unfortunate that Visual China GroupLtd is generating lower returns from the same amount of capital. Investors haven't taken kindly to these developments, since the stock has declined 43% from where it was five years ago. That being the case, unless the underlying trends revert to a more positive trajectory, we'd consider looking elsewhere.

On a final note, we've found 1 warning sign for Visual China GroupLtd that we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.