Heilongjiang Agriculture (SHSE:600598) Shareholders Have Earned a 9.3% CAGR Over the Last Five Years
Heilongjiang Agriculture (SHSE:600598) Shareholders Have Earned a 9.3% CAGR Over the Last Five Years
Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. Buying under-rated businesses is one path to excess returns. To wit, the Heilongjiang Agriculture share price has climbed 36% in five years, easily topping the market return of 21% (ignoring dividends).
选股者通常在寻找表现优于大盘的股票。收购被低估的企业是获得超额回报的一种途径。换句话说,黑龙江农业股价在五年内上涨了36%,轻松超过了21%的市场回报率(不计股息)。
Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
现在也值得一看公司的基本面,因为这将有助于我们确定长期股东回报是否与基础业务的表现相匹配。
View our latest analysis for Heilongjiang Agriculture
查看我们对黑龙江农业的最新分析
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
在他的文章中 格雷厄姆和多兹维尔的超级投资者 沃伦·巴菲特描述了股价如何并不总是合理地反映企业的价值。通过比较每股收益(EPS)和一段时间内的股价变化,我们可以了解投资者对公司的态度是如何随着时间的推移而变化的。
During five years of share price growth, Heilongjiang Agriculture actually saw its EPS drop 0.3% per year.
在五年的股价增长中,黑龙江农业的每股收益实际上每年下降0.3%。
So it's hard to argue that the earnings per share are the best metric to judge the company, as it may not be optimized for profits at this point. Therefore, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movements.
因此,很难说每股收益是评判公司的最佳指标,因为目前每股收益可能还没有针对利润进行优化。因此,值得一看其他指标,以了解股价走势。
On the other hand, Heilongjiang Agriculture's revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 9.0% over the last five years. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.
另一方面,黑龙江农业的收入增长良好,在过去五年中复合增长率为9.0%。在这种情况下,该公司可能会牺牲当前的每股收益来推动增长。
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
下图描述了收入和收入随时间推移而发生的变化(点击图片即可显示确切的数值)。
If you are thinking of buying or selling Heilongjiang Agriculture stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
如果您正在考虑买入或卖出黑龙江农业股票,则应在其资产负债表上查看这份免费的详细报告。
What About Dividends?
分红呢?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Heilongjiang Agriculture the TSR over the last 5 years was 56%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
重要的是要考虑任何给定股票的股东总回报率和股价回报率。尽管股价回报率仅反映股价的变化,但股东总回报率包括股息的价值(假设已进行再投资)以及任何折扣融资或分拆的收益。可以说,股东总回报率更全面地描述了股票产生的回报。我们注意到,黑龙江农业在过去5年的股东总回报率为56%,好于上述股价回报率。而且,猜测股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种分歧是没有好处的!
A Different Perspective
不同的视角
Heilongjiang Agriculture shareholders are down 16% over twelve months (even including dividends), which isn't far from the market return of -17%. The silver lining is that longer term investors would have made a total return of 9% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data remains strong, and the share price is simply down on sentiment, then this could be an opportunity worth investigating. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Heilongjiang Agriculture , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
黑龙江农业股东在十二个月内下跌了16%(甚至包括股息),与-17%的市场回报率相差不远。一线希望是,长期投资者将在五年内获得每年9%的总回报。如果基本面数据保持强劲,而股价仅因市场情绪而下跌,那么这可能是一个值得研究的机会。我发现将长期股价视为业务绩效的代表非常有趣。但是,要真正获得见解,我们还需要考虑其他信息。例如,投资风险的幽灵无处不在。我们已经确定了黑龙江农业的一个警告信号,了解它们应该是您投资过程的一部分。
We will like Heilongjiang Agriculture better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
如果我们看到一些重大的内幕收购,我们会更喜欢黑龙江农业。在我们等待的同时,请查看这份免费清单,列出了最近有大量内幕收购的成长型公司。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。