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Is Yunnan Tourism (SZSE:002059) A Risky Investment?

Is Yunnan Tourism (SZSE:002059) A Risky Investment?

云南旅游(深交所:002059)是风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  01/31 20:37

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Yunnan Tourism Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002059) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

传奇基金经理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾经说过:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久的资本损失。”因此,当你评估公司的风险时,看来聪明的货币知道债务(通常涉及破产)是一个非常重要的因素。我们注意到,云南旅游股份有限公司(SZSE:002059)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但是,股东是否应该担心其债务的使用?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

债务会带来什么风险?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

债务可以为企业提供帮助,直到企业难以偿还债务,无论是新资本还是自由现金流。资本主义的重要组成部分是 “创造性破坏” 的过程,在这个过程中,倒闭的企业将被银行家无情地清算。尽管这种情况并不常见,但我们经常会看到负债公司永久稀释股东,因为贷款人强迫他们以不利的价格筹集资金。但是,通过取代稀释,对于需要资本以高回报率投资增长的企业来说,债务可能是一个非常好的工具。在考虑企业使用多少债务时,要做的第一件事是将现金和债务放在一起看。

Check out our latest analysis for Yunnan Tourism

查看我们对云南旅游业的最新分析

What Is Yunnan Tourism's Net Debt?

云南旅游的净负债是多少?

As you can see below, Yunnan Tourism had CN¥973.6m of debt at September 2023, down from CN¥1.09b a year prior. However, it does have CN¥915.9m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥57.7m.

如下所示,截至2023年9月,云南旅游的债务为9.736亿元人民币,低于去年同期的10.9亿元人民币。但是,它确实有9.159亿元的现金抵消了这一点,净负债约为5,770万元人民币。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:002059 Debt to Equity History February 1st 2024
SZSE: 002059 2024 年 2 月 1 日债务与股本比率的历史记录

How Healthy Is Yunnan Tourism's Balance Sheet?

云南旅游的资产负债表有多健康?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Yunnan Tourism had liabilities of CN¥1.78b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥911.5m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥915.9m as well as receivables valued at CN¥432.6m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥1.34b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

放大最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看出,云南旅游局在12个月内到期的负债为17.8亿元人民币,之后到期的负债为9.115亿元人民币。除了这些债务外,它还有9.159亿元的现金以及价值4.326亿元人民币的应收账款将在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额比现金和短期应收账款的总和多出13.4亿元人民币。

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Yunnan Tourism has a market capitalization of CN¥4.96b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt. Carrying virtually no net debt, Yunnan Tourism has a very light debt load indeed. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Yunnan Tourism will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

尽管这可能看起来很多,但还不错,因为云南旅游的市值为49.6亿元人民币,因此如果需要,它可能会通过筹集资金来强化资产负债表。但是,仍然值得仔细研究其偿还债务的能力。云南旅游业几乎没有净负债,债务负担确实很轻。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但是你不能完全孤立地看待债务;因为云南旅游需要收入来偿还债务。因此,在考虑债务时,绝对值得一看收益趋势。单击此处查看交互式快照。

In the last year Yunnan Tourism had a loss before interest and tax, and actually shrunk its revenue by 51%, to CN¥435m. To be frank that doesn't bode well.

去年,云南旅游业在利息和税前出现亏损,收入实际上减少了51%,至4.35亿元人民币。坦率地说,这并不是一个好兆头。

Caveat Emptor

Caveat Emptor

Not only did Yunnan Tourism's revenue slip over the last twelve months, but it also produced negative earnings before interest and tax (EBIT). To be specific the EBIT loss came in at CN¥366m. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above does not give us much confidence that company should be using so much debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. However, it doesn't help that it burned through CN¥25m of cash over the last year. So suffice it to say we do consider the stock to be risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Yunnan Tourism you should know about.

在过去的十二个月中,云南旅游业不仅收入下滑,而且还产生了负的息税前收益(EBIT)。具体而言,息税前利润亏损为3.66亿元人民币。考虑到除了上述负债外,我们对公司应该使用如此多的债务没有太大的信心。坦率地说,我们认为资产负债表远非匹配,尽管可以随着时间的推移而改善。但是,去年它消耗了2500万加元的现金,这无济于事。因此,只要说我们确实认为这只股票有风险就足够了。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但是,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,远非如此。这些风险可能很难发现。每家公司都有它们,我们已经发现了一个你应该知道的云南旅游警告标志。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

当然,如果你是那种喜欢在没有债务负担的情况下购买股票的投资者,那么请立即查看我们的独家净现金增长股票清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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