Every investor on earth makes bad calls sometimes. But you have a problem if you face massive losses more than once in a while. So consider, for a moment, the misfortune of Topchoice Medical Co., Inc. (SHSE:600763) investors who have held the stock for three years as it declined a whopping 84%. That would be a disturbing experience. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 61% in the last year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 32% in the last three months. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 16% decline in the broader market, throughout the period. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Topchoice Medical actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 5.4% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

Revenue is actually up 7.7% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating Topchoice Medical further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Topchoice Medical will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Topchoice Medical shareholders are down 61% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 23%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 2%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Is Topchoice Medical cheap compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.