Is Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical Industry Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600835) Trading At A 24% Discount?
Is Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical Industry Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600835) Trading At A 24% Discount?
Key Insights
关键见解
- Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical IndustryLtd's estimated fair value is CN¥15.71 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical IndustryLtd's CN¥11.88 share price signals that it might be 24% undervalued
- The average premium for Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical IndustryLtd's competitorsis currently 532%
- 根据两阶段股权自由现金流计算,上海机电工业有限公司的估计公允价值为15.71元人民币
- 上海机电工业有限公司11.88元人民币的股价表明其估值可能被低估了24%
- 目前,上海机电工业有限公司竞争对手的平均溢价为532%
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical Industry Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600835) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
今天,我们将简单介绍一种用于估算上海机电工业股份有限公司吸引力的估值方法。, Ltd. (SHSE: 600835) 通过计算预期的未来现金流并将其折现为现值,将其作为投资机会。我们的分析将采用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。不要被行话吓跑,它背后的数学其实很简单。
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
但请记住,估算公司价值的方法有很多,而差价合约只是一种方法。如果你对这种估值还有一些迫切的问题,可以看看 Simply Wall St 分析模型。
What's The Estimated Valuation?
估计估值是多少?
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,这只是意味着我们考虑了公司增长的两个阶段。在初始阶段,公司的增长率可能更高,而第二阶段通常被认为具有稳定的增长率。首先,我们必须估算出未来十年的现金流。鉴于我们没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们从公司上次公布的价值中推断了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
差价合约就是关于未来一美元的价值低于今天一美元的概念,因此,这些未来现金流的总和将折现为今天的价值:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 估计
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥967.5m | CN¥980.8m | CN¥998.9m | CN¥1.02b | CN¥1.05b | CN¥1.07b | CN¥1.10b | CN¥1.13b | CN¥1.16b | CN¥1.20b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 0.70% | Est @ 1.37% | Est @ 1.84% | Est @ 2.17% | Est @ 2.40% | Est @ 2.56% | Est @ 2.68% | Est @ 2.76% | Est @ 2.81% | Est @ 2.85% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.7% | CN¥890 | CN¥830 | CN¥777 | CN¥731 | CN¥688 | CN¥649 | CN¥613 | CN¥580 | CN¥548 | CN¥519 |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
杠杆FCF(人民币,百万) | 967.5 亿元人民币 | 9.80.8 亿元人民币 | 998.9 万元人民币 | cn¥1.02b | cn¥1.05b | cn¥1.07b | cn¥1.10b | cn¥1.13b | cn¥1.16b | cn¥1.20b |
增长率估算来源 | 美国东部标准时间 @ 0.70% | 东部标准时间 @ 1.37% | Est @ 1.84% | Est @ 2.17% | Est @ 2.40% | Est @ 2.56% | Est @ 2.68% | Est @ 2.76% | Est @ 2.81% | 东部时间 @ 2.85% |
现值(人民币,百万元)折扣 @ 8.7% | CN¥890 | CN¥830 | CN¥777 | CN¥731 | CN¥688 | CN¥649 | CN¥613 | CN¥580 | CN¥548 | CN¥519 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥6.8b
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
10 年期现金流 (PVCF) 的现值 = 68亿元人民币
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.7%.
我们现在需要计算终值,该值涵盖了这十年之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终值,其未来年增长率等于10年期国债收益率2.9%的5年平均水平。我们将终端现金流折现为今天的价值,股本成本为8.7%。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥1.2b× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.7%– 2.9%) = CN¥21b
终端价值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 1.2b人民币× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.7% — 2.9%) = 210亿人民币
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥21b÷ ( 1 + 8.7%)10= CN¥9.2b
终端价值的现值 (PVTV) = 电视/ (1 + r)10= CN¥210b÷ (1 + 8.7%)10= 9.2亿元人民币
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥16b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥11.9, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 24% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
因此,总价值或权益价值是未来现金流现值的总和,在本例中为160亿元人民币。为了得出每股内在价值,我们将其除以已发行股票总数。相对于目前的11.9元人民币的股价,该公司的估值似乎略有低估,比目前的股价折扣了24%。但是,估值是不精确的工具,就像望远镜一样——移动几度,最终进入另一个星系。请记住这一点。
![dcf](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240210/0-5f46b652fd79e1937f29efd61a333c94-0-bab90ee0a6d281afacf79238bf94f951.png/big)
The Assumptions
假设
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical IndustryLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.026. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
上面的计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。你不必同意这些输入,我建议你自己重做计算然后试一试。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面反映公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将上海机电工业有限公司视为潜在股东,因此使用权益成本作为贴现率,而不是构成债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了8.7%,这是基于1.026的杠杆测试版。Beta是衡量股票与整个市场相比波动性的指标。我们的测试版来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔值,设定在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定的业务的合理范围。
Looking Ahead:
展望未来:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical IndustryLtd, we've compiled three additional aspects you should look at:
尽管重要,但DCF的计算不应是你在研究公司时唯一考虑的指标。使用DCF模型不可能获得万无一失的估值。最好你运用不同的案例和假设,看看它们将如何影响公司的估值。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者其股本成本或无风险利率急剧变化,则产出可能会大不相同。我们能否弄清楚为什么公司的交易价格低于内在价值?对于上海机电工业有限公司,我们整理了您应该考虑的另外三个方面:
- Risks: As an example, we've found 1 warning sign for Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical IndustryLtd that you need to consider before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does 600835's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- 风险:举个例子,我们发现了上海机电工业有限公司的一个警告信号,在投资这里之前,你需要考虑这个信号。
- 未来收益:与同行和整个市场相比,600835的增长率如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地了解未来几年的分析师共识数字。
- 其他稳健的业务:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去表现是强大业务的基础。为什么不浏览我们具有坚实业务基础的股票互动清单,看看是否还有其他你可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS。Simply Wall St每天都会更新每只中国股票的差价合约计算结果,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,请在此处搜索。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。