The full-year results for Civista Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:CIVB) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$158m, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at US$2.73 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, Civista Bancshares' four analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$158.7m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 25% to US$1.99 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$161.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.20 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$19.80, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Civista Bancshares at US$21.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$18.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Civista Bancshares' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Civista Bancshares.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Civista Bancshares. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Civista Bancshares analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Civista Bancshares that you need to take into consideration.

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