Nvidia's Rally At Risk? Short Seller Jim Chanos Says 'That's Bad ... If True' After Analyst Spots Potential Red Flag
Nvidia's Rally At Risk? Short Seller Jim Chanos Says 'That's Bad ... If True' After Analyst Spots Potential Red Flag
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ has enjoyed a triumphant rise in 2024, securing the fifth-highest valuation for a publicly listed company globally. However, as its stock price continues its seemingly unstoppable climb, concerns flicker amidst the optimism.
$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ 在2024年取得了胜利的增长,确保了全球上市公司的第五高估值。但是,随着其股价继续保持看似不可阻挡的攀升,人们的担忧在乐观情绪中闪现。
What Happened: At the heart of the debate lies an observation made by UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri.
发生了什么:辩论的核心是瑞银分析师蒂莫西·阿库里的观察。
After checking with customers, Arcuri reported a decrease in lead times for Nvidia's chips, indicating available shipment slots in the latter half of 2024.
在与客户核对后,Arcuri报告说,Nvidia芯片的交货时间有所缩短,这表明2024年下半年有可用出货量。
Arcuri interpreted this as "upside potential for shipments and revenue" even after saying "Normally, this is bad." Shortened lead times traditionally paint a less rosy picture, often suggesting waning demand.
尽管阿库里说 “通常,这很糟糕”,但仍将其解释为 “出货量和收入的上行潜力”。传统上,缩短交货时间描绘的画面不那么乐观,这通常表明需求减弱。
This interpretation sparked a stir online, drawing a blunt "No, that's bad...if true," from none other than Jim Chanos, renowned for his successful short bets on companies like Enron and Tesla.
这种解释在网上引起了轰动,他直言不讳地说 “不,那很糟糕... 如果是真的”,他以成功空头押注安然和特斯拉等公司而闻名。
Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh shared Arcuri's findings, confirming shorter lead times for Nvidia's flagship H100 AI accelerator chips. However, he emphasized the continued tightness of supply and robust demand.
瑞穗证券分析师维杰·拉克什分享了Arcuri的调查结果,证实了英伟达旗舰H100人工智能加速器芯片的交货时间缩短。但是,他强调供应持续紧张和需求强劲。
No, that's bad...if true. $NVDA
— Diogenes (@WallStCynic) February 14, 2024
不,那很糟糕... 如果是真的。$NVDA
— 第欧根尼 (@WallStCynic) 2024 年 2 月 14 日
Why It's Important The concern stems from Nvidia's strategic position as a flagbearer for the burgeoning AI revolution. The company's deep integration with this hot-button technology has fueled significant growth in recent quarters. However, several potential risks bubble beneath the surface.
为何如此重要这种担忧源于Nvidia作为新兴人工智能革命旗手的战略地位。该公司与这项热键技术的深度整合推动了最近几个季度的显著增长。但是,一些潜在的风险浮出水面。
Following the third-quarter earnings release, social media chatter focused on the emergence of Singapore as one of Nvidia's largest customers, raising concerns about over-reliance on a single market.
在第三季度财报发布之后,社交媒体的热议聚焦于新加坡成为英伟达最大的客户之一,这引发了人们对过度依赖单一市场的担忧。
Analysts acknowledge the possibility of the AI bubble bursting within the next three to five years. While they remain confident in AI's long-term benefits for productivity and economic growth, the possibility of a short-term correction casts a shadow.
分析师承认,人工智能泡沫有可能在未来三到五年内破裂。尽管他们对人工智能对生产率和经济增长的长期好处仍然充满信心,但短期调整的可能性蒙上了阴影。
While Nvidia currently enjoys a near-monopoly position, competition from peers like $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ and the rise of in-house AI development by customers could chip away at its dominance.
尽管英伟达目前处于近乎垄断的地位,但来自同行的竞争 $美国超微公司 (AMD.US)$ 而客户内部人工智能开发的兴起可能会削弱其主导地位。
Despite these concerns, counterpoints remain. Analysts generally hold faith in the long-term impact of AI on boosting productivity and fostering sustainable economic growth. Moreover, Nvidia's early-mover advantage in AI technology and its comprehensive software stack provide a significant competitive edge.
尽管有这些担忧,但对立面仍然存在。分析师普遍相信人工智能对提高生产力和促进可持续经济增长的长期影响。此外,Nvidia在人工智能技术方面的先行优势及其全面的软件堆栈提供了显著的竞争优势。
Further clarity on Nvidia's short- and mid-term outlook will emerge on Feb. 21 when the company releases its quarterly earnings report.
英伟达将在2月21日发布季度收益报告时进一步明确其短期和中期前景。
In premarket trading on Wednesday, Nvidia's stock climbed 1.68% to $733.38, according to Benzinga Pro data.
根据Benzinga Pro的数据,在周三的盘前交易中,英伟达的股票上涨了1.68%,至733.38美元。