A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of China Kepei Education Group Limited (HKG:1890)
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of China Kepei Education Group Limited (HKG:1890)
Key Insights
关键见解
China Kepei Education Group's estimated fair value is HK$1.61 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
With HK$1.44 share price, China Kepei Education Group appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
The CN¥3.57 analyst price target for 1890 is 121% more than our estimate of fair value
根据两阶段的股本自由现金流计算,中国科培教育集团的公允价值估计为1.61港元
中国科培教育集团的股价为1.44港元,其交易价格似乎接近其估计的公允价值
分析师1890年的目标股价为3.57元人民币,比我们对公允价值的估计高出121%
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of China Kepei Education Group Limited (HKG:1890) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
今天,我们将简单介绍一种估值方法,该方法通过计算预期的未来现金流并将其折现为今天的价值,来估计中国科培教育集团有限公司(HKG: 1890)作为投资机会的吸引力。我们的分析将采用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。不要被行话吓跑,它背后的数学其实很简单。
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
我们普遍认为,公司的价值是其未来将产生的所有现金的现值。但是,DCF只是众多估值指标中的一个,而且并非没有缺陷。如果你对这种估值还有一些迫切的问题,可以看看Simply Wall St的分析模型。
The Method
该方法
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,这只是意味着我们考虑了公司增长的两个阶段。在初始阶段,公司的增长率可能更高,而第二阶段通常被认为具有稳定的增长率。首先,我们必须估算未来十年的现金流。鉴于我们没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们从公司上次报告的价值中推断出先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,在此期间,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓萎缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出早期增长的放缓幅度往往比以后的几年更大。
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
DCF 完全是指未来一美元的价值低于今天的一美元,因此我们需要折扣这些未来现金流的总和才能得出现值估计值:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 估计
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
2031 |
2032 |
2033 |
|
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) |
CN¥348.9m |
CN¥279.8m |
CN¥242.8m |
CN¥221.8m |
CN¥209.7m |
CN¥203.0m |
CN¥199.7m |
CN¥198.6m |
CN¥199.1m |
CN¥200.6m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source |
Est @ -29.15% |
Est @ -19.79% |
Est @ -13.24% |
Est @ -8.66% |
Est @ -5.45% |
Est @ -3.20% |
Est @ -1.63% |
Est @ -0.53% |
Est @ 0.24% |
Est @ 0.78% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.5% |
CN¥322 |
CN¥238 |
CN¥190 |
CN¥160 |
CN¥140 |
CN¥125 |
CN¥113 |
CN¥104 |
CN¥95.8 |
CN¥89.0 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
2031 |
2032 |
2033 |
|
杠杆FCF(人民币,百万) |
3.489 亿元人民币 |
279.8 亿元人民币 |
2.428 亿元人民币 |
22180 万元人民币 |
2.097 亿元人民币 |
2.03亿人民币 |
199.7 万元人民币 |
198.6 万元人民币 |
199.1 万元人民币 |
200.6 万元人民币 |
增长率估算来源 |
美国东部标准时间 @ -29.15% |
美国东部标准时间 @ -19.79% |
估计 @ -13.24% |
美国东部标准时间 @ -8.66% |
美国东部标准时间 @ -5.45% |
美国东部标准时间 @ -3.20% |
Est @ -1.63% |
美国东部时间 @ -0.53% |
东部标准时间 @ 0.24% |
美国东部标准时间 @ 0.78% |
现值(人民币,百万元)折扣 @ 8.5% |
CN¥322 |
CN¥238 |
CN¥190 |
CN¥160 |
CN¥140 |
CN¥125 |
CN¥113 |
CN¥104 |
CN¥95.8 |
人民币 89.0 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥1.6b
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
10年期现金流(PVCF)的现值 = 16亿元人民币
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.5%.
第二阶段也称为终值,这是企业在第一阶段之后的现金流。出于多种原因,使用的增长率非常保守,不能超过一个国家的GDP增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用10年期国债收益率的5年平均值(2.0%)来估计未来的增长。与10年 “增长” 期一样,我们使用8.5%的权益成本将未来的现金流折现为今天的价值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥201m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (8.5%– 2.0%) = CN¥3.2b
终值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 人民币201万元× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (8.5% — 2.0%) = 32亿元人民币
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥3.2b÷ ( 1 + 8.5%)10= CN¥1.4b
终端价值的现值 (PVTV) = TV/(1 + r) 10= CN¥3.2B÷ (1 + 8.5%) 10= 14亿元人民币
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥3.0b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of HK$1.4, the company appears about fair value at a 11% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
因此,总价值或权益价值是未来现金流现值的总和,在本例中为30亿元人民币。最后一步是将股票价值除以已发行股票的数量。相对于目前的1.4港元的股价,该公司的公允价值似乎比目前的股价折扣了11%。任何计算中的假设都会对估值产生重大影响,因此最好将其视为粗略的估计,而不是精确到最后一美分。
![](https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240223/0-25e99d0ab7a8292864cd6eb86d593bcf-0-decf48dab05dbb3911edcb0b002651ec.png/big)
SEHK:1890 Discounted Cash Flow February 22nd 2024
SEHK: 1890 贴现现金流 2024 年 2 月 22 日
The Assumptions
假设
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at China Kepei Education Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.141. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
上面的计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。你不必同意这些输入,我建议你自己重做计算然后试一试。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面反映公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将中国科培教育集团视为潜在股东,因此使用股本成本作为贴现率,而不是构成债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了8.5%,这是基于1.141的杠杆测试版。Beta是衡量股票与整个市场相比波动性的指标。我们的测试版来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔值,设定在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定的业务的合理范围。
SWOT Analysis for China Kepei Education Group
中国科培教育集团的SWOT分析
Strength
力量
Debt is not viewed as a risk.
债务不被视为风险。
Balance sheet summary for 1890.
1890 年的资产负债表摘要。
Weakness
弱点
Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Consumer Services industry.
过去一年的收益增长表现低于消费服务行业。
Opportunity
机会
Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
预计未来三年的年收入将增长。
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
根据市盈率和估计的公允价值,物有所值。
Significant insider buying over the past 3 months.
在过去的3个月中进行了大量的内幕收购。
Threat
威胁
Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market.
预计年收益增长将低于香港市场。
What else are analysts forecasting for 1890?
分析师对1890年还有什么预测?
Looking Ahead:
展望未来:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For China Kepei Education Group, we've put together three further factors you should further examine:
就建立投资论点而言,估值只是硬币的一面,它只是公司需要评估的众多因素之一。DCF模型并不是投资估值的万能药。最好你运用不同的案例和假设,看看它们将如何影响公司的估值。例如,如果稍微调整终值增长率,则可能会极大地改变整体结果。对于中国科培教育集团,我们汇总了您应该进一步研究的另外三个因素:
Financial Health: Does 1890 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for 1890's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
财务状况:1890年的资产负债表是否良好?看看我们的免费资产负债表分析,其中包含对杠杆和风险等关键因素的六项简单检查。
管理层:内部人士是否一直在增加股票以利用市场对1890年代未来前景的情绪?查看我们的管理层和董事会分析,了解首席执行官薪酬和治理因素。
其他稳健的业务:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去表现是强劲业务的基础。为什么不浏览我们具有扎实业务基础的交互式股票清单,看看是否还有其他公司你可能没有考虑过!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
PS。Simply Wall St应用程序每天对联交所的每只股票进行折扣现金流估值。如果您想找到其他股票的计算结果,请在此处搜索。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。