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What Happens If Government Shutdown Can't Be Avoided?

What Happens If Government Shutdown Can't Be Avoided?

如果无法避免政府关门会发生什么?
Benzinga ·  02/26 13:15

As the U.S. government again faces a partial shutdown, President Joe Biden is calling on Congress to approve $1.6 trillion in funding for federal agencies by Friday.

随着美国政府再次面临部分关闭,乔·拜登总统呼吁国会在周五之前批准为联邦机构提供1.6万亿美元的资金。

If lawmakers can't agree on the spending package or a further extension, government departments could shut down as early as this weekend, and would shut down further next Friday. Here is the timeline of a two step possible shutdown and how it might affect markets.

如果立法者无法就一揽子支出计划或进一步延期达成协议,政府部门最早可能在本周末关闭,并将在下周五进一步关闭。以下是可能的两步停摆的时间表以及它将如何影响市场。

March 1: Transportation, Housing and Food Safety departments would see funding expire.

3月1日:交通、住房和食品安全部门的资金将到期。

According to USA Facts, around 44% of the 2023 federal transportation and infrastructure spending budget was for highway transportation, including repairs to roads and civil engineering structures such as bridges.

根据美国事实,2023年联邦交通和基础设施支出预算中约有44%用于公路运输,包括道路和桥梁等土木工程结构的维修。

Meanwhile, 23% was for air travel — particularly infrastructure and jobs such as air traffic control and security screeners. While full-time qualified controllers and security personnel would be required to work, training would cease, leaving both understaffed.

同时,23%用于航空旅行,尤其是基础设施和工作,例如空中交通管制和安全检查人员。虽然需要全职的合格控制员和安保人员工作,但培训将停止,使两者人手不足。

This could have a major impact on air travel, with cancellations inevitable if required maintenance and air traffic control staff are unable to work.

这可能会对航空旅行产生重大影响,如果所需的维护和空中交通管制人员无法工作,则不可避免地会取消。

Cancellations would hurt stocks such as $Southwest Airlines (LUV.US)$, which has so far enjoyed a 20% gain in 2024, while $American Airlines (AAL.US)$ has gained 12% and  $United Airlines (UAL.US)$ has climbed 11%. Much of the rest is spent on rail infrastructure and subsidies, which come from the Federal Transit Administration, which could be affected.

取消会损害股票,例如 $西南航空 (LUV.US)$,到目前为止,该公司在2024年已上涨20%,而 $美国航空 (AAL.US)$ 上涨了12%,$联合大陆航空 (UAL.US)$ 已经上涨了11%。其余大部分用于铁路基础设施和补贴,这些资金来自联邦运输管理局,这可能会受到影响。

Rail freight operators such as the $Union Pacific (UNP.US)$ could be disrupted, which could also mean problems for companies down the supply chain.

铁路货运运营商,例如 $联合太平洋 (UNP.US)$ 可能会中断,这也可能给供应链下游的公司带来麻烦。

The $Ishares Transportation Averageetf (IYT.US)$, an exchange-traded transport that tracks the S&P 500 transportation sub-index, was down 0.3% on Monday at $280.29.

这个 $运输指数ETF-iShares (IYT.US)$追踪标准普尔500指数运输分项指数的交易所交易运输工具周一下跌0.3%,至280.29美元。

The House Freedom Caucus, meanwhile, is a group of nearly 40 Republicans lobbying for highly conservative policies such as ending funding to drive growth in the use of electric vehicles. Would $Tesla (TSLA.US)$, which is already suffering a sales slump, see further losses in growth for its products?

与此同时,众议院自由核心小组由近40名共和党人组成,他们游说采取高度保守的政策,例如终止为推动电动汽车使用增长而提供的资金。会 $特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$,已经遭受销售下滑的困扰,其产品的增长会进一步下降吗?

Some citizens could suffer as grants for public housing aid come under threat, however, the bulk of mortgage and rental-paying home dwellers would be unaffected.

由于公共住房援助补助金受到威胁,一些公民可能会遭受损失,但是,大部分抵押贷款和支付租金的住房居民将不会受到影响。

But payments to companies and workers employed on contracts building new public housing could be affected.

但是,向根据合同建造新公共住房的公司和工人支付的款项可能会受到影响。

March 8: Defense, Legal, National Parks and Science departments would see funding expire.

3月8日:国防、法律、国家公园和科学部门的资金将到期。

Military personnel would be required to continue working. Federal justice agencies such as the FBI and CIA would also stay on duty, as would Border Patrol and immigration services. But federal courts would be affected, meaning a backlog in hearings would build up.

军事人员必须继续工作。联邦调查局和中央情报局等联邦司法机构也将继续值班,边境巡逻和移民局也将继续值班。但是联邦法院将受到影响,这意味着听证会将积压。

Many federal science research institutes, however, would be disrupted, as could government grants for research. Many regulatory bodies would be suspended — apart from those that deal with human safety issues. The Securities and Exchange Commission, for example, would see most of its activities suspended.

但是,许多联邦科学研究机构将受到干扰,政府的研究拨款也将中断。许多监管机构将被停职——处理人类安全问题的监管机构除外。例如,证券交易委员会的大部分活动将暂停。

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