Shareholders in New World Development (HKG:17) Are in the Red If They Invested Five Years Ago
Shareholders in New World Development (HKG:17) Are in the Red If They Invested Five Years Ago
Long term investing works well, but it doesn't always work for each individual stock. It hits us in the gut when we see fellow investors suffer a loss. Anyone who held New World Development Company Limited (HKG:17) for five years would be nursing their metaphorical wounds since the share price dropped 81% in that time. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 55% in the last year. Furthermore, it's down 22% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.
长期投资行之有效,但并不总是适用于每只股票。当我们看到其他投资者遭受损失时,这让我们大吃一惊。自那时股价下跌81%以来,任何持有新世界发展有限公司(HKG: 17)五年的人都将照顾自己的隐喻创伤。一些最近的买家可能也感到担忧,该股去年下跌了55%。此外,它在大约一个季度内下降了22%。对于持有者来说,这并不好玩。在这种情况下,我们真的对股东有同感。这很好地提醒了多元化的重要性,无论如何,值得记住的是,生活中存在的不仅仅是金钱。
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
考虑到这一点,值得一看公司的基本面是否是长期业绩的驱动力,或者是否存在一些差异。
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
用本杰明·格雷厄姆的话来说:从短期来看,市场是一台投票机器,但从长远来看,它是一台称重机。通过比较每股收益(EPS)和一段时间内的股价变化,我们可以了解投资者对公司的态度是如何随着时间的推移而变化的。
Looking back five years, both New World Development's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 47% per year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 28% compound annual share price fall. So the market may previously have expected a drop, or else it expects the situation will improve.
回顾五年,新世界发展的股价和每股收益均有所下降;后者每年下降47%。每股收益的下降比28%的复合年股价下跌还要严重。因此,市场此前可能曾预计会下跌,否则预计情况会有所改善。
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
下图描述了 EPS 随着时间的推移是如何变化的(点击图片可以看到确切的值)。
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
在买入或卖出股票之前,我们始终建议仔细研究历史增长趋势,可在此处查阅。
What About Dividends?
分红呢?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for New World Development the TSR over the last 5 years was -71%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
重要的是要考虑任何给定股票的股东总回报率和股价回报率。股东总回报率是一种回报计算方法,它考虑了现金分红的价值(假设收到的任何股息都经过再投资)以及任何贴现资本筹集和分拆的计算价值。可以公平地说,股东总回报率为支付股息的股票提供了更完整的画面。我们注意到,对于新世界发展而言,过去5年的股东总回报率为-71%,好于上述股价回报率。这在很大程度上是其股息支付的结果!
A Different Perspective
不同的视角
We regret to report that New World Development shareholders are down 48% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 7.5%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 11% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for New World Development (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
我们遗憾地报告,新世界发展股东今年下跌了48%(甚至包括股息)。不幸的是,这比整个市场7.5%的跌幅还要严重。但是,可能只是股价受到了更广泛的市场紧张情绪的影响。如果有很好的机会,可能值得关注基本面。遗憾的是,去年的业绩结束了糟糕的表现,股东在五年内每年面临11%的总亏损。我们意识到罗斯柴尔德男爵曾说过,投资者应该 “在街头流血时买入”,但我们警告说,投资者应首先确保他们购买的是高质量的企业。尽管市场状况可能对股价产生的不同影响值得考虑,但还有其他因素更为重要。例如,我们发现了 3 个新世界发展的警告信号(1 个对我们来说不太合适!)在这里投资之前,您应该注意这一点。
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
如果你像我一样,那么你不会想错过这份业内人士正在收购的成长型公司的免费名单。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。