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Is Bohai Automotive Systems (SHSE:600960) A Risky Investment?

Is Bohai Automotive Systems (SHSE:600960) A Risky Investment?

渤海汽车系统(上海证券交易所股票代码:600960)是一项风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  02/27 23:15

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Bohai Automotive Systems CO., LTD. (SHSE:600960) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

由伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李露对此毫不掩饰,他说:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久的资本损失。”因此,当你评估公司的风险时,看来聪明的货币知道债务(通常涉及破产)是一个非常重要的因素。与许多其他公司一样,渤海汽车系统有限公司(SHSE: 600960) 使用债务。但是,股东是否应该担心其债务的使用?

When Is Debt A Problem?

债务何时会成为问题?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

当企业无法通过自由现金流或以有吸引力的价格筹集资金来轻松履行这些义务时,债务和其他负债就会变得有风险。在最坏的情况下,如果一家公司无法偿还债权人,它可能会破产。但是,更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,公司必须以低廉的股价稀释股东才能控制债务。话虽如此,最常见的情况是公司合理地管理其债务,而且对自己有利。考虑公司的债务水平的第一步是同时考虑其现金和债务。

What Is Bohai Automotive Systems's Net Debt?

渤海汽车系统的净负债是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2023 Bohai Automotive Systems had debt of CN¥1.67b, up from CN¥1.48b in one year. However, it also had CN¥819.9m in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥854.5m.

您可以点击下图查看更多详情,该图片显示,截至2023年9月,渤海汽车系统的债务为16.7亿元人民币,高于一年内的14.8亿元人民币。但是,它也有8.19亿元的现金,因此其净负债为8.545亿元人民币。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SHSE:600960 Debt to Equity History February 28th 2024
SHSE: 600960 2024 年 2 月 28 日债务与股权比率的历史记录

How Strong Is Bohai Automotive Systems' Balance Sheet?

渤海汽车系统的资产负债表有多强?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Bohai Automotive Systems had liabilities of CN¥2.31b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥637.5m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥819.9m in cash and CN¥1.51b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥613.9m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

放大最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到,渤海汽车系统的负债为23.1亿元人民币,12个月后到期的负债为6.375亿元人民币。与此相抵消的是,它有8.19亿元的现金和151亿元人民币的应收账款将在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额为6.139亿元人民币,比现金和短期应收账款的总和多出6.139亿元人民币。

Given Bohai Automotive Systems has a market capitalization of CN¥3.72b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Bohai Automotive Systems will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

鉴于渤海汽车系统的市值为37.2亿元人民币,很难相信这些负债会构成很大的威胁。话虽如此,很明显,我们应该继续监控其资产负债表,以免情况恶化。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但是你不能完全孤立地看待债务;因为渤海汽车系统需要收益来偿还债务。因此,在考虑债务时,绝对值得一看收益趋势。单击此处查看交互式快照。

Over 12 months, Bohai Automotive Systems reported revenue of CN¥4.6b, which is a gain of 15%, although it did not report any earnings before interest and tax. We usually like to see faster growth from unprofitable companies, but each to their own.

在过去的12个月中,渤海汽车系统公布的收入为46亿元人民币,增长了15%,尽管它没有报告任何利息和税前收益。我们通常希望看到无利可图的公司实现更快的增长,但每家公司都有自己的发展。

Caveat Emptor

Caveat Emptor

Importantly, Bohai Automotive Systems had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. To be specific the EBIT loss came in at CN¥105m. When we look at that and recall the liabilities on its balance sheet, relative to cash, it seems unwise to us for the company to have any debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. We would feel better if it turned its trailing twelve month loss of CN¥117m into a profit. So we do think this stock is quite risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Bohai Automotive Systems you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.

重要的是,渤海汽车系统去年出现了息税前收益(EBIT)亏损。具体而言,息税前利润亏损为1.05亿元人民币。当我们审视这一点并回顾其资产负债表上相对于现金的负债时,对我们来说,公司有任何债务似乎是不明智的。坦率地说,我们认为资产负债表远非匹配,尽管可以随着时间的推移而改善。如果它将过去十二个月的1.17亿元的亏损转化为利润,我们会感觉更好。因此,我们确实认为这只股票风险很大。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但归根结底,每家公司都可以控制资产负债表之外存在的风险。一个很好的例子:我们发现了两个你应该注意的渤海汽车系统的警告标志,其中一个有点不愉快。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

归根结底,通常最好将注意力集中在没有净负债的公司身上。您可以访问我们的此类公司的特别名单(所有公司都有利润增长记录)。它是免费的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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