Results: Dillard's, Inc. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts
Results: Dillard's, Inc. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts
Investors in Dillard's, Inc. (NYSE:DDS) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.4% to close at US$436 following the release of its full-year results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$6.9b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Dillard's surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$44.73 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
迪拉德公司(纽约证券交易所代码:DDS)的投资者度过了愉快的一周,在公布全年业绩后,其股价上涨了3.4%,收于436美元。总体结果是积极的——尽管69亿美元的收入与分析师的预测一致,但迪拉德惊讶地实现了每股44.73美元的法定利润,略高于预期。分析师通常会在每份收益报告中更新他们的预测,我们可以从他们的估计中判断他们对公司的看法是否发生了变化,或者是否有任何新的问题需要注意。考虑到这一点,我们收集了最新的法定预测,以了解分析师对明年的预期。
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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from three analysts covering Dillard's is for revenues of US$6.43b in 2025. This implies a measurable 6.5% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 32% to US$30.92 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$6.58b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$28.19 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.
继最近的财报之后,三位报道迪拉德的分析师一致认为,2025年收入为64.3亿美元。这意味着与过去12个月相比,收入下降了6.5%。预计同期每股法定收益将下降32%,至30.92美元。然而,在最新财报公布之前,分析师曾预计2025年收入为65.8亿美元,每股收益(EPS)为28.19美元。因此,很明显,尽管在最新业绩公布后,对收入的情绪有所下降,但分析师现在更加看好该公司的盈利能力。
The average price target rose 24% to US$311, with the analysts signalling that the improved earnings outlook is the key driver of value for shareholders - enough to offset the reduction in revenue estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Dillard's, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$450 and the most bearish at US$190 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
平均目标股价上涨24%,至311美元,分析师表示,盈利前景的改善是股东价值的关键驱动力,足以抵消收入预期的下降。研究分析师的估计范围,评估异常值与平均值的差异也可能很有启发性。对迪拉德的看法有所不同,最看涨的分析师将其估值为450美元,最看跌的为每股190美元。这是相当广泛的估计,表明分析师正在预测该业务的各种可能结果。
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.5% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 3.7% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 11% per year. It's pretty clear that Dillard's' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
现在从大局来看,我们理解这些预测的方法之一是了解它们与过去的业绩和行业增长估计相比如何。我们要强调的是,收入预计将逆转,预计到2025年底年化下降6.5%。与过去五年3.7%的历史增长相比,这是一个显著的变化。相比之下,我们的数据表明,总体而言,同一行业的其他公司的收入预计每年将增长11%。很明显,预计迪拉德的收入表现将大大低于整个行业。
The Bottom Line
底线
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Dillard's following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
这里最重要的是,分析师上调了每股收益预期,这表明对迪拉德公布这些业绩的乐观情绪明显增强。不幸的是,他们还下调了收入预期,我们的数据显示,与整个行业相比,表现不佳。即便如此,每股收益对业务的内在价值更为重要。然而,收益对企业的内在价值更为重要。目标股价也大幅提高,分析师显然认为该业务的内在价值正在提高。
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Dillard's analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
考虑到这一点,我们仍然认为该业务的长期发展轨迹对于投资者来说更为重要。根据多位迪拉德分析师的估计,到2027年,你可以在我们的平台上免费查看。
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Dillard's , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
尽管如此,仍然有必要考虑永远存在的投资风险阴影。我们已经在迪拉德发现了一个警告信号,我们知道这应该是你投资过程的一部分。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。