Is Gotion High-techLtd (SZSE:002074) Using Debt In A Risky Way?
Is Gotion High-techLtd (SZSE:002074) Using Debt In A Risky Way?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Gotion High-tech Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:002074) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
传奇基金经理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾经说过:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久的资本损失。”因此,很明显,当你考虑任何给定股票的风险时,你需要考虑债务,因为过多的债务会使公司陷入困境。我们注意到国轩高科股份有限公司, Ltd.(深圳证券交易所:002074)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但是,股东是否应该担心其债务的使用?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
债务会带来什么风险?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
债务可以帮助企业,直到企业难以偿还债务,无论是新资本还是自由现金流。在最坏的情况下,如果公司无法向债权人付款,它可能会破产。但是,更频繁(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,公司必须以低廉的价格发行股票,永久稀释股东,以支撑其资产负债表。当然,债务可以成为企业的重要工具,尤其是资本密集型企业。考虑公司的债务水平的第一步是同时考虑其现金和债务。
What Is Gotion High-techLtd's Net Debt?
Gotion High-TechLtd 的净负债是多少?
As you can see below, at the end of September 2023, Gotion High-techLtd had CN¥32.5b of debt, up from CN¥20.9b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had CN¥18.6b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥13.9b.
如下所示,截至2023年9月底,Gotion High-TechLtd的债务为325亿元人民币,高于去年同期的209亿元人民币。点击图片查看更多细节。但是,它也有186亿加元的现金,因此其净负债为139亿元人民币。
How Strong Is Gotion High-techLtd's Balance Sheet?
Gotion HightechLtd的资产负债表有多强?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Gotion High-techLtd had liabilities of CN¥40.3b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥21.6b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥18.6b in cash and CN¥14.3b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥29.0b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
最新的资产负债表数据显示,Gotion High-TechLtd的负债为403亿元人民币,此后到期的负债为216亿元人民币。与此相抵消的是,它有186亿加元的现金和143亿元人民币的应收账款将在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额比现金和短期应收账款的总和多出290亿元人民币。
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of CN¥34.6b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Gotion High-techLtd's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Gotion High-techLtd can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
相对于其346亿元人民币的市值,这一赤字相当可观,因此这确实表明股东应密切关注Gotion High-TechLtd的债务使用情况。如果其贷款人要求其支撑资产负债表,股东可能会面临严重的稀释。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但最终,该业务未来的盈利能力将决定Gotion High-TechLtd能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
In the last year Gotion High-techLtd wasn't profitable at an EBIT level, but managed to grow its revenue by 60%, to CN¥30b. Shareholders probably have their fingers crossed that it can grow its way to profits.
去年,Gotion High-TechLtd在息税前利润水平上没有盈利,但设法将其收入增长了60%,达到300亿元人民币。股东们可能对它能够实现盈利抱有疑虑。
Caveat Emptor
Caveat Emptor
Despite the top line growth, Gotion High-techLtd still had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. To be specific the EBIT loss came in at CN¥169m. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above does not give us much confidence that company should be using so much debt. So we think its balance sheet is a little strained, though not beyond repair. Another cause for caution is that is bled CN¥11b in negative free cash flow over the last twelve months. So in short it's a really risky stock. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - Gotion High-techLtd has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
尽管收入有所增长,但Gotion High-TechLTD去年仍出现利息和税前收益(EBIT)亏损。具体而言,息税前利润亏损为1.69亿元人民币。考虑到这一点,除了上述负债外,我们对公司应该使用如此多的债务没有太大的信心。因此,我们认为其资产负债表有些紧张,尽管并非无法修复。另一个需要谨慎的原因是,在过去的十二个月中,自由现金流为负110亿元人民币。因此,简而言之,这是一只非常有风险的股票。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但是,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,远非如此。例如,Gotion High-TechLtd 有 2 个我们认为你应该注意的警告标志。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
归根结底,通常最好将注意力集中在没有净负债的公司身上。您可以访问我们的此类公司的特别名单(所有公司都有利润增长记录)。它是免费的。
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