February 'Hot' Inflation Report Could Spark Market's Next Big Sell-Off, Warns Fundstrat's Tom Lee: 'Stocks Could See Selling Pressure'
February 'Hot' Inflation Report Could Spark Market's Next Big Sell-Off, Warns Fundstrat's Tom Lee: 'Stocks Could See Selling Pressure'
The stock market could be on the verge of a significant shift, with a crucial inflation report potentially triggering the next major sell-off, according to Tom Lee, the head of research at Fundstrat.
Fundstrat研究主管汤姆·李表示，股市可能处于重大转变的边缘，一份重要的通货膨胀报告可能会引发下一次重大抛售。
What Happened: The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release on Mar. 12, could be a turning point for the market in 2024, reported Business Insider. The report will indicate whether the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates.
发生了什么：据《商业内幕》报道，定于3月12日发布的2月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告可能是2024年市场的转折点。该报告将表明美联储是否可能降息。
"To us, this is also the decision point for markets in 2024. If the Feb CPI is 'hot,' even if for statistically wrong reasons, we think markets could become anxious," said Lee.
“对我们来说，这也是2024年市场的决策点。如果2月份的消费者价格指数'很热'，即使出于统计学上的错误原因，我们也认为市场可能会变得焦虑，” 李说。
The February inflation report follows a January CPI report that was hotter than expected. Lee pointed out that some of the seasonal factors that drive up prices in January could spill over into February.
2月份的通货膨胀报告是在1月份的消费者价格指数报告之后发布的，该报告比预期的要高。李指出，推动1月份价格上涨的一些季节性因素可能会蔓延到2月。
Should the February CPI report come in higher than anticipated, it could put the Fed in a difficult position and lead to a more hawkish stance from the central bank. This could potentially trigger the most significant sell-off in the stock market since its record rally began in late October.
如果2月份的消费者价格指数报告高于预期，则可能使美联储陷入困境，并导致央行采取更加鹰派的立场。这可能会引发自10月下旬股市创纪录的涨势以来最严重的抛售。
"It seems like the Fed cannot ignore the optical issue of two CPI prints that appear to be breaking the downtrend. Thus, it seems like stocks could see selling pressure on the heels of this," Lee said.
“看来美联储不能忽视两份消费者价格指数的视觉问题，这两份数据似乎正在打破下跌趋势。因此，在此之后，股票似乎可能会出现抛售压力，” 李说。
Lee has suggested that the S&P 500 could experience a 7% sell-off in early 2024, which would send the index down to 4,777, around the stock market's previous record highs.
李表示，标准普尔500指数可能在2024年初经历7％的抛售，这将使该指数跌至4,777点，接近股市之前的历史新高。
Why It Matters: The stock market has been showing remarkable resilience in 2024, with inflation easing and the Federal Reserve less worried about the robust U.S. job market, as highlighted by Lee in a previous report. This could be the first major challenge to the market's strength.
为何重要：正如李在先前的一份报告中强调的那样，2024年股市表现出显著的弹性，通货膨胀放松，美联储对强劲的美国就业市场的担忧也减少了。这可能是市场实力面临的第一个重大挑战。
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts in 2024, citing the uncertain economic outlook and the need for cautious movement.
同时，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示有可能在2024年降息，理由是经济前景不确定，需要采取谨慎的行动。
The European Central Bank (ECB) also lowered its inflation forecasts while maintaining interest rates, in line with the Federal Reserve's cautious approach.
欧洲中央银行（ECB）也下调了通胀预期，同时维持了利率，这符合美联储的谨慎态度。
On the other hand, Tom Lee has also been bullish on Bitcoin's future, predicting a rise to $150,000 before the end of the year.
另一方面，汤姆·李也一直看好比特币的未来，预计到年底将升至150,000美元。
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