Investors in China Oilfield Services (HKG:2883) Have Unfortunately Lost 13% Over the Last Three Years
Investors in China Oilfield Services (HKG:2883) Have Unfortunately Lost 13% Over the Last Three Years
No-one enjoys it when they lose money on a stock. But no-one can make money on every call, especially in a declining market. The China Oilfield Services Limited (HKG:2883) is down 18% over three years, but the total shareholder return is -13% once you include the dividend. And that total return actually beats the market decline of 29%. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 13% in the last 90 days.
当他们在股票上亏损时,没有人会喜欢它。但是,没有人能在每次通话中赚钱,尤其是在下跌的市场中。中国油田服务有限公司(HKG: 2883)在三年内下跌了18%,但计入股息后,股东总回报率为-13%。而总回报率实际上超过了29%的市场跌幅。股东们最近的表现更加艰难,股价在过去90天中下跌了13%。
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
现在让我们来看看公司的基本面,看看长期股东回报是否与基础业务的表现相匹配。
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
尽管一些人继续教导高效市场假说,但事实证明,市场是反应过度的动态系统,投资者并不总是理性的。通过比较每股收益(EPS)和一段时间内的股价变化,我们可以了解投资者对公司的态度是如何随着时间的推移而变化的。
Although the share price is down over three years, China Oilfield Services actually managed to grow EPS by 0.1% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
尽管股价在三年内下跌,但在此期间,中国油田服务实际上每年设法将每股收益增长0.1%。这真是个难题,表明可能会有一些东西暂时提振股价。否则,该公司过去曾被过度炒作,因此其增长令人失望。
After considering the numbers, we'd posit that the the market had higher expectations of EPS growth, three years back. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.
在考虑了这些数字之后,我们假设市场对三年前每股收益增长的预期更高。看看其他指标可能会更好地解释股价的变化。
Revenue is actually up 15% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching China Oilfield Services more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.
在过去的三年中,收入实际上增长了15%,因此股价下跌似乎也不取决于收入。这种分析只是敷衍了事,但可能值得更仔细地研究中国油田服务,因为有时股市会不公平地下跌。这可能带来机会。
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
公司的收入和收益(随着时间的推移)如下图所示(点击查看确切数字)。
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. You can see what analysts are predicting for China Oilfield Services in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
可能值得注意的是,首席执行官的薪水低于类似规模公司的中位数。但是,尽管首席执行官的薪酬总是值得检查的,但真正重要的问题是公司未来能否增加收益。在这张未来利润估计的交互式图表中,您可以看到分析师对中国油田服务的预测。
What About Dividends?
分红呢?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, China Oilfield Services' TSR for the last 3 years was -13%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
重要的是要考虑任何给定股票的股东总回报率和股价回报率。基于股息再投资的假设,股东总回报率纳入了任何分拆或贴现资本筹集的价值以及任何股息。因此,对于支付丰厚股息的公司来说,股东总回报率通常远高于股价回报率。碰巧的是,中国油田服务过去3年的股东总回报率为-13%,超过了前面提到的股价回报率。而且,猜测股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种分歧是没有好处的!
A Different Perspective
不同的视角
While the broader market lost about 10% in the twelve months, China Oilfield Services shareholders did even worse, losing 15% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 0.4% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Before deciding if you like the current share price, check how China Oilfield Services scores on these 3 valuation metrics.
尽管整个市场在十二个月中下跌了约10%,但中国油田服务股东的表现甚至更糟,损失了15%(甚至包括股息)。但是,可能只是股价受到了更广泛的市场紧张情绪的影响。如果有很好的机会,可能值得关注基本面。不幸的是,去年的表现可能预示着尚未解决的挑战,因为它比过去五年0.4%的年化亏损还要糟糕。总的来说,长期股价疲软可能是一个坏兆头,尽管逆势投资者可能希望研究该股以期出现转机。在决定是否喜欢当前股价之前,请查看中国油田服务在这三个估值指标上的得分。
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
如果你想与管理层一起购买股票,那么你可能会喜欢这份免费的公司名单。(提示:业内人士一直在购买它们)。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。