Here's Why GEPIC Energy Development (SZSE:000791) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
Here's Why GEPIC Energy Development (SZSE:000791) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that GEPIC Energy Development Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000791) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
有人说,波动性,而不是债务,是投资者思考风险的最佳方式,但沃伦·巴菲特曾说过一句名言:“波动性远非风险的代名词。”当我们考虑一家公司的风险时,我们总是喜欢考虑其债务的用途,因为债务过载可能导致破产。我们注意到,GEPIC能源开发有限公司(深圳证券交易所代码:000791)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但真正的问题是这笔债务是否使公司面临风险。
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时危险?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
债务可以帮助企业,直到企业难以偿还债务,无论是新资本还是自由现金流。在最坏的情况下,如果公司无法向债权人付款,它可能会破产。但是,更常见(但仍然令人痛苦)的情况是,它必须以低廉的价格筹集新的股本,从而永久稀释股东。但是,通过取代稀释,债务可以成为需要资本以高回报率投资增长的企业的极好工具。考虑公司的债务水平的第一步是同时考虑其现金和债务。
How Much Debt Does GEPIC Energy Development Carry?
GEPIC能源开发背负了多少债务?
As you can see below, GEPIC Energy Development had CN¥10.4b of debt, at September 2023, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had CN¥1.56b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥8.87b.
如下所示,截至2023年9月,GEPIC能源开发公司有104亿元人民币的债务,与前一年大致相同。您可以单击图表以获取更多详细信息。但是,它也有15.6亿元的现金,因此其净负债为88.7亿元人民币。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240320/0-5ebf669b0ab3ccd7f49d3950990a9bad-0-ee365b05aa5a60c25b5d2875a18b23f3.png/big)
How Strong Is GEPIC Energy Development's Balance Sheet?
GEPIC能源开发公司的资产负债表有多强?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that GEPIC Energy Development had liabilities of CN¥2.78b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥8.96b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.56b and CN¥2.01b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥8.18b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
放大最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到,GEPIC能源开发公司的负债为27.8亿元人民币,12个月后到期的负债为89.6亿元人民币。另一方面,它有15.6亿元人民币的现金和价值201亿元人民币的应收账款将在一年内到期。因此,其负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的总额高出81.8亿元人民币。
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of CN¥9.12b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
相对于其912亿元人民币的市值,这是一座巨大的杠杆率。这表明,如果公司需要迅速支撑资产负债表,股东将被严重稀释。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
为了扩大公司相对于收益的负债规模,我们计算其净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA),将其利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以利息支出(利息保障)。因此,我们将债务与收益的关系考虑在内,包括和不包括折旧和摊销费用。
With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.3, it's fair to say GEPIC Energy Development does have a significant amount of debt. However, its interest coverage of 3.5 is reasonably strong, which is a good sign. On a lighter note, we note that GEPIC Energy Development grew its EBIT by 29% in the last year. If sustained, this growth should make that debt evaporate like a scarce drinking water during an unnaturally hot summer. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since GEPIC Energy Development will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
GEPIC能源开发公司的净负债与息税折旧摊销前利润的比率为5.3,可以公平地说,确实有大量债务。但是,其3.5的利息覆盖率相当强,这是一个好兆头。简而言之,我们注意到GEPIC能源开发公司的息税前利润在去年增长了29%。如果持续下去,这种增长应该使债务在异常炎热的夏天像稀缺的饮用水一样蒸发。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但是你不能完全孤立地看待债务;因为GEPIC能源开发需要收益来偿还债务。因此,如果你想进一步了解其收益,可能值得看看这张长期收益趋势图。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, GEPIC Energy Development recorded free cash flow of 39% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
最后,尽管税务人员可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冷硬现金。因此,我们总是检查息税前利润中有多少转化为自由现金流。纵观最近三年,GEPIC能源开发公司的自由现金流占其息税前利润的39%,低于我们的预期。在偿还债务方面,这并不好。
Our View
我们的观点
GEPIC Energy Development's net debt to EBITDA and level of total liabilities definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But its EBIT growth rate tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that GEPIC Energy Development is taking some risks with its use of debt. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example GEPIC Energy Development has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are significant) we think you should know about.
在我们看来,GEPIC能源开发公司的净负债占息税折旧摊销前利润和总负债水平无疑对其造成了压力。但其息税前利润增长率却是一个截然不同的故事,也表明了一定的弹性。当我们考虑所讨论的所有因素时,在我们看来,GEPIC能源开发公司在使用债务方面正在冒一些风险。因此,尽管这种杠杆率确实提高了股本回报率,但我们真的不希望看到它从现在开始增加。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但是,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,远非如此。例如,GEPIC 能源开发有 3 个警告信号(以及 2 个重要信号),我们认为你应该知道。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
当一切都说完之后,有时更容易将注意力集中在甚至不需要债务的公司上。读者现在可以100%免费访问净负债为零的成长型股票清单。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。