CGN Mining Company Limited (HKG:1164) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. The consensus estimated revenue numbers rose, with their view now clearly much more bullish on the company's business prospects. Investor sentiment seems to be improving too, with the share price up 6.3% to HK$1.69 over the past 7 days. Could this big upgrade push the stock even higher?

Following the upgrade, the current consensus from CGN Mining's eight analysts is for revenues of HK$8.8b in 2024 which - if met - would reflect a notable 19% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to soar 114% to HK$0.14. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of HK$7.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$0.14 in 2024. It seems analyst sentiment has certainly become more bullish on revenues, even though they haven't changed their view on earnings per share.

Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of HK$1.94, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that CGN Mining's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 19% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 24% over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 0.7% per year. So it's clear that despite the slowdown in growth, CGN Mining is still expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with analysts reconfirming that earnings per share are expected to continue performing in line with their prior expectations. On the plus side, they also lifted their revenue estimates, and the company is expected to perform better than the wider market. Seeing the dramatic upgrade to this year's forecasts, it might be time to take another look at CGN Mining.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for CGN Mining going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.