Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 8.0%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 8.0%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
As you might know, Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600096) last week released its latest annual, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Yunnan Yuntianhua missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of CN¥69b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.47, falling short by 3.3% and 8.0% respectively. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
你可能知道,云南云天化股份有限公司(SHSE: 600096)上周发布了最新的年度报告,但对股东来说,情况并不那么好。云南云天化未达到分析师的预期,收入为690亿元人民币,法定每股收益(EPS)为2.47元人民币,分别下降3.3%和8.0%。分析师通常会在每份收益报告中更新他们的预测,我们可以从他们的估计中判断他们对公司的看法是否发生了变化,或者是否有任何新的问题需要注意。根据这些结果,我们收集了最新的法定预测,以了解分析师是否改变了盈利模式。
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Yunnan Yuntianhua's seven analysts is for revenues of CN¥71.3b in 2024. This would reflect a modest 3.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 6.0% to CN¥2.61. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥73.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.87 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.
考虑到最新业绩,云南云天化的七位分析师目前的共识是,2024年的收入为713亿元人民币。这将反映其在过去12个月中收入略有增长3.2%。预计每股法定收益将增长6.0%,至2.61元人民币。在本报告发布之前,分析师一直在模拟2024年的收入为733亿元人民币,每股收益(EPS)为2.87元人民币。很明显,在最新业绩公布后,悲观情绪已经抬头,导致收入前景疲软,每股收益预期略有下调。
The consensus price target fell 17% to CN¥23.25, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Yunnan Yuntianhua, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥24.00 and the most bearish at CN¥22.50 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
共识目标股价下跌17%,至23.25元人民币,疲软的盈利前景显然领先于估值预期。但是,固定单一价格目标可能是不明智的,因为共识目标实际上是分析师目标股价的平均值。因此,一些投资者喜欢查看估计范围,看看对公司的估值是否有任何分歧。对云南云天化有一些不同的看法,最看涨的分析师将其估值为24.00元人民币,最看跌的为每股22.50元人民币。由于估值范围如此狭窄,分析师显然对他们认为的业务价值有相似的看法。
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Yunnan Yuntianhua's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 7.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Yunnan Yuntianhua is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
当然,看待这些预测的另一种方法是将它们与行业本身联系起来。我们要强调的是,云南云天化的收入增长预计将放缓,预计到2024年底的年化增长率为3.2%,远低于过去五年7.8%的历史年增长率。相比之下,该行业中其他有分析师报道的公司的收入预计将以每年17%的速度增长。考虑到预计增长放缓,很明显,云南云天化的增长预计也将低于其他行业参与者。
The Bottom Line
底线
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Yunnan Yuntianhua. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
最大的担忧是,分析师下调了每股收益的预期,这表明云南云天化可能会面临业务不利因素。不幸的是,他们还下调了收入预期,我们的数据显示,与整个行业相比,表现不佳。即便如此,每股收益对业务的内在价值更为重要。此外,分析师还下调了目标股价,这表明最新消息加剧了人们对业务内在价值的悲观情绪。
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Yunnan Yuntianhua going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
考虑到这一点,我们仍然认为该业务的长期发展轨迹对于投资者来说更为重要。我们对云南云天化到2026年的发展做出了预测,你可以在我们的平台上免费看到这些预测。
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Yunnan Yuntianhua that you need to take into consideration.
还值得注意的是,我们已经发现了云南云天化的两个警示信号,你需要考虑。
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