Baiyin Nonferrous Group (SHSE:601212) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
Baiyin Nonferrous Group (SHSE:601212) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Baiyin Nonferrous Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601212) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
大卫·伊本说得好,他说:“波动性不是我们关心的风险。我们关心的是避免资本的永久损失。”当你检查公司的资产负债表的风险时,考虑它的资产负债表是很自然的,因为企业倒闭时通常会涉及债务。重要的是,白银有色集团有限公司(SHSE: 601212)确实有债务。但真正的问题是这笔债务是否使公司面临风险。
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时危险?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
债务是帮助企业增长的工具,但是如果企业无法偿还贷款人的债务,那么债务就会任由他们摆布。资本主义的重要组成部分是 “创造性破坏” 过程,在这种过程中,倒闭的企业被银行家无情地清算。但是,更常见(但仍然很痛苦)的情况是,它必须以低廉的价格筹集新的股权资本,从而永久稀释股东。当然,许多公司使用债务为增长提供资金,而不会产生任何负面影响。在考虑企业使用多少债务时,要做的第一件事就是综合考虑其现金和债务。
What Is Baiyin Nonferrous Group's Net Debt?
白银有色集团的净负债是多少?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Baiyin Nonferrous Group had CN¥19.6b in debt in September 2023; about the same as the year before. However, it also had CN¥5.86b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥13.8b.
您可以点击下图查看更多详情,该图表显示,白银有色集团在2023年9月的债务为196亿元人民币;与前一年大致相同。但是,它也有58.6亿元的现金,因此其净负债为138亿元人民币。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240328/0-2c1c4318f0bf58c5761ea00651421ca5-0-38f2fbe4b6b35b4811f34db8f3af3071.png/big)
A Look At Baiyin Nonferrous Group's Liabilities
看看白银有色集团的负债
According to the last reported balance sheet, Baiyin Nonferrous Group had liabilities of CN¥23.2b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥7.57b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥5.86b and CN¥2.58b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥22.3b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
根据上次报告的资产负债表,白银有色集团在12个月内到期的负债为232亿元人民币,12个月以后到期的负债为757亿元人民币。另一方面,它有一年内到期的现金为58.6亿元人民币,还有价值25.8亿元人民币的应收账款。因此,它的负债总额比现金和短期应收账款的总和多出223亿加元人民币。
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of CN¥20.4b, we think shareholders really should watch Baiyin Nonferrous Group's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
鉴于这一赤字实际上高于该公司204亿元人民币的市值,我们认为股东们确实应该关注白银有色集团的债务水平,就像父母第一次看着孩子骑自行车一样。假设,如果公司被迫通过按当前股价筹集资金来偿还负债,则需要进行极其严重的稀释。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
为了扩大公司相对于收益的负债规模,我们计算其净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA),将其利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以利息支出(利息保障)。因此,我们将债务与收益的关系考虑在内,包括和不包括折旧和摊销费用。
Baiyin Nonferrous Group has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.2, which signals significant debt, but is still pretty reasonable for most types of business. But its EBIT was about 10.7 times its interest expense, implying the company isn't really paying a high cost to maintain that level of debt. Even were the low cost to prove unsustainable, that is a good sign. Shareholders should be aware that Baiyin Nonferrous Group's EBIT was down 44% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Baiyin Nonferrous Group will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
白银有色集团的债务与息税折旧摊销前利润的比率为4.2,这表示负债累累,但对于大多数类型的业务来说仍然相当合理。但其息税前利润约为利息支出的10.7倍,这意味着该公司并没有为维持这一债务水平付出高昂的代价。即使事实证明低成本是不可持续的,这也是一个好兆头。股东应该意识到,去年白银有色集团的息税前利润下降了44%。如果这种下降持续下去,那么偿还债务将比在素食大会上出售鹅肝更难。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但是你不能完全孤立地看待债务;因为白银有色集团需要收益来偿还债务。因此,如果你想进一步了解其收益,可能值得看看这张长期收益趋势图。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Baiyin Nonferrous Group recorded free cash flow of 22% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
最后,尽管税务人员可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冷硬现金。因此,我们显然需要研究息税前利润是否会带来相应的自由现金流。从最近三年来看,白银有色集团的自由现金流占其息税前利润的22%,低于我们的预期。在偿还债务方面,这并不好。
Our View
我们的观点
Mulling over Baiyin Nonferrous Group's attempt at (not) growing its EBIT, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. We're quite clear that we consider Baiyin Nonferrous Group to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Baiyin Nonferrous Group (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.
仔细考虑白银有色集团(不是)增加息税前利润的尝试,我们当然并不热情。但至少它在用息税前利润支付利息支出方面相当不错;这令人鼓舞。我们很清楚,由于其资产负债表状况良好,我们认为白银有色集团的风险确实相当大。出于这个原因,我们对该股非常谨慎,我们认为股东应密切关注其流动性。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但是,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,远非如此。这些风险可能很难发现。每家公司都有它们,我们已经发现了白银有色集团的两个警告标志(其中一个让我们有点不舒服!)你应该知道。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
当然,如果你是那种喜欢在没有债务负担的情况下购买股票的投资者,那么请立即查看我们的独家净现金增长股票清单。
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