Jerome Powell Says Fed Doesn't 'Need To Be In A Hurry To Cut' Interest Rates: Odds Of June Reduction Jump In Prediction Market
Jerome Powell Says Fed Doesn't 'Need To Be In A Hurry To Cut' Interest Rates: Odds Of June Reduction Jump In Prediction Market
The monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report Friday showed inflation rising in the month of February, which could impact the timing of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
周五的月度个人消费支出（PCE）报告显示，2月份的通货膨胀率上升，这可能会影响美联储未来降息的时机。
Here's what Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said Friday about the latest inflation data — and what could come next.
以下是美联储杰罗姆·鲍威尔周五对最新通胀数据所说的话——以及接下来可能发生的事情。
What Happened: The headline PCE price index was up 2.5% annually in February, higher than the 2.4% reported in January. The figure was in line with estimates.
发生了什么：2月份总体个人消费支出价格指数每年上涨2.5％，高于1月份公布的2.4％。这个数字与估计一致。
Month-over-month, the PCE index rose 0.3%.
个人消费支出指数环比上涨0.3％。
Personal spending in the report was up 0.8%, which was ahead of estimates and higher than the 0.2% increase reported in January.
报告中的个人支出增长了0.8％，超出了预期，高于1月份公布的0.2％的增长。
The core price index was up 2.8% on an annual rate, also in line with estimates. This figure takes out food and energy prices, which are more volatile.
核心价格指数按年率上涨2.8％，也符合预期。这个数字列出了波动性更大的食品和能源价格。
Powell said that the report won't lead to a rush by the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
鲍威尔表示，该报告不会导致美联储急于降息。
"We don't need to be in a hurry to cut," Powell said Friday, as reported by Bloomberg.
彭博社报道，鲍威尔周五表示：“我们不必急于削减。”
Powell said the newly reported inflation data is "in line with our expectations."
鲍威尔说，新公布的通货膨胀数据 “符合我们的预期”。
Going forward, Powell said the Federal Reserve will cut rates when inflation is on track to hit a 2% goal laid out by the financial governing body.
展望未来，鲍威尔表示，当通货膨胀有望达到金融管理机构设定的2％的目标时，美联储将降息。
"It's good to see something coming in in line with expectations."
“很高兴看到一些东西符合预期。”
Powell called the road to 2% inflation a "sometimes bumpy path" in his remarks.
鲍威尔在讲话中称通往2％的通胀之路是 “有时是坎坷的道路”。
Related Link: Sticky Inflation Persists: Fed's Preferred Measure Climbs, Analysts Sound Off
相关链接：粘性通货膨胀持续存在：美联储的首选指标攀升，分析师大声疾呼
What's Next: Estimates for rate cuts in 2024 by experts and industry analysts have been shifting based on recent inflation data. Most experts anticipate three rate cuts coming in 2024.
下一步是什么：根据最近的通胀数据，专家和行业分析师对2024年降息的估计一直在变化。大多数专家预计，2024年将有三次降息。
One big question remains: whether the first rate cut will occur in May, June or even later.
仍然存在一个大问题：首次降息是否会在5月、6月甚至更晚发生。
Crypto prediction market Polymarket offers betting on items in categories such as politics, the Middle East, sports, cryptocurrency, pop culture, business and science.
加密预测市场 Polymarket 提供对政治、中东、体育、加密货币、流行文化、商业和科学等类别的项目的投注。
A prediction market for when the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve will take place has attracted millions of dollars in wagers.
美联储何时首次降息的预测市场吸引了数百万美元的赌注。
On Polymarket, users deposit to Polygon (CRYPOT:MATIC) using USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) and can deposit with Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) or from crypto accounts.
在Polymarket上，用户使用USDC（加密货币：USDC）向Polygon（CRYPOT: MATIC）存款，并且可以使用以太坊（加密货币：ETH）或加密账户进行存款。
Each betting market cashes out at $1 for the option(s) that ends up being the winner.
每个投注市场以1美元兑现最终成为赢家的期权。
The market for "Fed Rate Cut By...? Has the following options as of Friday, with the percentage odds of the event occurring listed. The odds as they stood prior to the Fed's March meeting are in parentheses.
“美联储降息...？截至周五有以下选项，并列出了事件发生的百分比几率。括号中列出了美联储3月会议之前的赔率。
May 1: 9% (10%)
5 月 1 日：9% (10%)
June 12: 63% (52%)
6 月 12 日：63% (52%)
July 31: 81% (78%)
7 月 31 日：81% (78%)
Sept. 8: 86% (89%)
9 月 8 日：86% (89%)
Nov. 7: 92% (90%)
11 月 7 日：92% (90%)
Dec. 18: 92% (93%)
12 月 18 日：92％（93％）
The latest inflation data has led to more crypto bettors wagering on a rate cut coming by June 12, with 63% betting on this date. The percenaget of people betting on a Fed cut by July 31 has also increased.
最新的通货膨胀数据导致更多的加密货币博彩玩家押注6月12日之前将降息，有63％的人押注这一日期。押注美联储在7月31日之前削减开支的人的比例也有所增加。
Based on comments from economists and the crypto betting market, June is the heavy favorite for a first rate cut.
根据经济学家和加密博彩市场的评论，6月是首次降息的重中之重。
Jerome Powell and Wall Street illustration. Photo: Federalreserve/Flickr Photo: Bylolo/Unsplash.
杰罗姆·鲍威尔和华尔街的插图。照片：美联储/Flickr 照片：Bylolo/Unsplash。