LiJiang YuLong Tourism Co., LTD.'s (SZSE:002033) On An Uptrend But Financial Prospects Look Pretty Weak: Is The Stock Overpriced?
LiJiang YuLong Tourism Co., LTD.'s (SZSE:002033) On An Uptrend But Financial Prospects Look Pretty Weak: Is The Stock Overpriced?
Most readers would already be aware that LiJiang YuLong Tourism's (SZSE:002033) stock increased significantly by 23% over the past three months. However, in this article, we decided to focus on its weak fundamentals, as long-term financial performance of a business is what ultimately dictates market outcomes. Particularly, we will be paying attention to LiJiang YuLong Tourism's ROE today.
大多数读者已经意识到,丽江玉龙旅游(深圳证券交易所:002033)的股票在过去三个月中大幅增长了23%。但是,在本文中,我们决定重点关注其疲软的基本面,因为企业的长期财务表现是最终决定市场业绩的因素。特别是,我们今天将关注丽江玉龙旅游的投资回报率。
Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors' money. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.
股本回报率或投资回报率是对公司增值和管理投资者资金的有效性的考验。简而言之,它衡量公司相对于股东权益的盈利能力。
How Is ROE Calculated?
ROE 是如何计算的?
The formula for ROE is:
ROE 的公式是:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
股本回报率 = 净利润(来自持续经营业务)÷ 股东权益
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for LiJiang YuLong Tourism is:
因此,根据上述公式,丽江玉龙旅游的投资回报率为:
9.6% = CN¥252m ÷ CN¥2.6b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).
9.6% = 2.52亿元人民币 ÷ 26亿元人民币(基于截至2023年12月的过去十二个月)。
The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every CN¥1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated CN¥0.10 in profit.
“回报” 是过去十二个月的利润。这意味着,每持有价值1元人民币的股权,公司就会产生0.10元人民币的利润。
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
为什么投资回报率对收益增长很重要?
Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don't share these attributes.
到目前为止,我们已经了解到,投资回报率衡量的是公司创造利润的效率。然后,我们能够评估公司的收益增长潜力,具体取决于公司对这些利润进行再投资或 “保留” 了多少及其有效性。一般而言,在其他条件相同的情况下,股本回报率和利润留存率高的公司的增长率要高于不具有这些属性的公司。
LiJiang YuLong Tourism's Earnings Growth And 9.6% ROE
丽江玉龙旅游业的收益增长和9.6%的投资回报率
When you first look at it, LiJiang YuLong Tourism's ROE doesn't look that attractive. Yet, a closer study shows that the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 8.0%. Having said that, LiJiang YuLong Tourism's five year net income decline rate was 16%. Remember, the company's ROE is a bit low to begin with. Hence, this goes some way in explaining the shrinking earnings.
乍一看,丽江玉龙旅游的投资回报率看起来并不那么吸引人。然而,一项更仔细的研究表明,该公司的投资回报率与行业平均水平的8.0%相似。话虽如此,丽江玉龙旅游五年净收入下降率为16%。请记住,公司的投资回报率一开始有点低。因此,这在某种程度上解释了收益的萎缩。
As a next step, we compared LiJiang YuLong Tourism's performance with the industry and discovered the industry has shrunk at a rate of 24% in the same period meaning that the company has been shrinking its earnings at a rate lower than the industry. While this is not particularly good, its not particularly bad either.
下一步,我们将丽江玉龙旅游的表现与该行业进行了比较,发现该行业同期以24%的速度萎缩,这意味着该公司的收益萎缩率一直低于该行业。虽然这不是特别好,但也不是特别糟糕。
![past-earnings-growth](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240402/0-886eba9d8dba0fd4c8ed3e4aa99f3243-0-7aea197f4d36461ee2b31091425d0b43.png/big)
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Has the market priced in the future outlook for 002033? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.
收益增长是股票估值的重要因素。投资者接下来需要确定的是,预期的收益增长或缺乏收益是否已经包含在股价中。通过这样做,他们将知道股票是走向清澈的蓝色海水还是沼泽水域在等着呢。市场对002033的未来展望进行了定价吗?您可以在我们最新的内在价值信息图研究报告中找到答案。
Is LiJiang YuLong Tourism Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?
丽江玉龙旅游是否有效地将利润再投资?
LiJiang YuLong Tourism's high three-year median payout ratio of 134% suggests that the company is depleting its resources to keep up its dividend payments, and this shows in its shrinking earnings. Paying a dividend higher than reported profits is not a sustainable move.
丽江玉龙旅游三年来最高的派息率中位数为134%,这表明该公司正在耗尽资源以维持股息支付,这体现在其收益萎缩上。支付高于报告利润的股息不是可持续的举动。
Moreover, LiJiang YuLong Tourism has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 49% over the next three years. However, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much despite the lower expected payout ratio.
此外,丽江玉龙旅游已经派发股息至少十年或更长时间,这表明管理层一定已经意识到股东更喜欢分红而不是收益增长。现有的分析师估计表明,该公司未来的派息率预计将在未来三年降至49%。但是,尽管预期的派息率较低,但该公司的投资回报率预计不会有太大变化。
Conclusion
结论
Overall, we would be extremely cautious before making any decision on LiJiang YuLong Tourism. Specifically, it has shown quite an unsatisfactory performance as far as earnings growth is concerned, and a poor ROE and an equally poor rate of reinvestment seem to be the reason behind this inadequate performance. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
总体而言,在就丽江玉龙旅游做出任何决定之前,我们会非常谨慎。具体而言,就收益增长而言,它的表现相当不令人满意,而糟糕的投资回报率和同样糟糕的再投资率似乎是表现不佳的原因。既然如此,最新的行业分析师预测显示,分析师预计公司的收益增长率将得到巨大改善。这些分析师的预期是基于对该行业的广泛预期,还是基于公司的基本面?点击此处进入我们分析师对公司的预测页面。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。