An Intrinsic Calculation For Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603611) Suggests It's 36% Undervalued
An Intrinsic Calculation For Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603611) Suggests It's 36% Undervalued
Key Insights
关键见解
- Noblelift Intelligent EquipmentLtd's estimated fair value is CN¥30.94 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Noblelift Intelligent EquipmentLtd's CN¥19.71 share price signals that it might be 36% undervalued
- Our fair value estimate is 23% higher than Noblelift Intelligent EquipmentLtd's analyst price target of CN¥25.20
- 根据两阶段股权自由现金流计算,Noblelift Intelligent EquipmentLtd的估计公允价值为30.94元人民币
- Noblelift智能设备有限公司19.71元人民币的股价表明其估值可能被低估了36%
- 我们的公允价值估计比Noblelift智能设备有限公司分析师设定的25.20元人民币的目标股价高出23%
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603611) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
今天,我们将简单介绍一种用于估算Noblelift智能设备有限公司吸引力的估值方法。, Ltd.(上海证券交易所股票代码:603611)将预期的未来现金流作为投资机会,并将其折现为今天的价值。我们的分析将采用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。像这样的模型可能看起来超出外行人的理解,但它们很容易理解。
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
我们普遍认为,公司的价值是其未来将产生的所有现金的现值。但是,差价合约只是众多估值指标中的一个,而且并非没有缺陷。对于那些热衷于股票分析的人来说,你可能会对这里的Simply Wall St分析模型感兴趣。
What's The Estimated Valuation?
估计估值是多少?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我们使用所谓的两阶段模型,这仅意味着公司的现金流有两个不同的增长期。通常,第一阶段是较高的增长阶段,第二阶段是较低的增长阶段。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。鉴于我们没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们从公司上次公布的价值中推断了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
差价合约就是关于未来一美元的价值低于今天一美元的概念,因此,这些未来现金流的总和将折现为今天的价值:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 估计
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥445.4m | CN¥479.5m | CN¥509.4m | CN¥536.2m | CN¥560.6m | CN¥583.4m | CN¥605.2m | CN¥626.3m | CN¥647.2m | CN¥668.0m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 9.68% | Est @ 7.65% | Est @ 6.24% | Est @ 5.25% | Est @ 4.56% | Est @ 4.07% | Est @ 3.73% | Est @ 3.49% | Est @ 3.33% | Est @ 3.21% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.3% | CN¥408 | CN¥402 | CN¥391 | CN¥376 | CN¥360 | CN¥343 | CN¥326 | CN¥308 | CN¥292 | CN¥276 |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
杠杆FCF(人民币,百万) | 4.454 亿元人民币 | 479.5 亿人民币 | 5.094 亿元人民币 | 536.2 亿元人民币 | 560.6 万人民币 | 5.834亿元人民币 | 605.2 万元人民币 | 6.263 亿元人民币 | 647.2 万人民币 | 668.0 万元人民币 |
增长率估算来源 | 美国东部标准时间 @ 9.68% | Est @ 7.65% | 美国东部标准时间 @ 6.24% | 东部时间 @ 5.25% | Est @ 4.56% | Est @ 4.07% | Est @ 3.73% | Est @ 3.49% | Est @ 3.33% | Est @ 3.21% |
现值(人民币,百万)折扣 @ 9.3% | CN¥408 | CN¥402 | CN¥391 | CN¥376 | CN¥360 | CN¥343 | CN¥326 | 人民币308 元 | 292 元人民币 | CN¥276 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥3.5b
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
10年期现金流(PVCF)的现值 = 35亿元人民币
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.3%.
我们现在需要计算终值,该值涵盖了这十年之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终值,其未来年增长率等于10年期国债收益率2.9%的5年平均水平。我们将终端现金流折现为今天的价值,权益成本为9.3%。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥668m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (9.3%– 2.9%) = CN¥11b
终端价值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 6.68亿元人民币× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (9.3% — 2.9%) = 110亿元人民币
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥11b÷ ( 1 + 9.3%)10= CN¥4.5b
终端价值的现值 (PVTV) = 电视/ (1 + r)10= CN¥11b÷ (1 + 9.3%)10= 4.5亿元人民币
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥8.0b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥19.7, the company appears quite good value at a 36% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
总价值是未来十年的现金流之和加上折后的最终价值,由此得出总权益价值,在本例中为80亿元人民币。为了得出每股内在价值,我们将其除以已发行股票总数。相对于目前的19.7元人民币的股价,该公司看起来物有所值,与目前的股价相比折扣了36%。但请记住,这只是一个近似的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样,垃圾进出。
![dcf](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240404/0-1c7fa1c437ef52f096789bfc58f2f1e9-0-3596704716d6c9a271a26fc0780cd27a.png/big)
Important Assumptions
重要假设
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Noblelift Intelligent EquipmentLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.122. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
我们要指出的是,贴现现金流的最重要投入是贴现率,当然还有实际的现金流。投资的一部分是自己对公司未来业绩的评估,因此请自己尝试计算并检查自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面反映公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将Noblelift Intelligent EquipmentLTD视为潜在股东,因此使用权益成本作为贴现率,而不是构成债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了9.3%,这是基于1.122的杠杆测试版。Beta是衡量股票与整个市场相比波动性的指标。我们的测试版来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔值,设定在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定的业务的合理范围。
Next Steps:
后续步骤:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Noblelift Intelligent EquipmentLtd, we've compiled three relevant aspects you should consider:
就建立投资论点而言,估值只是硬币的一面,它不应该是你在研究公司时唯一考虑的指标。DCF模型并不是投资估值的万能药。相反,它应该被视为 “需要哪些假设才能低估/高估这只股票的价值?” 的指南例如,公司权益成本或无风险利率的变化会对估值产生重大影响。为什么内在价值高于当前股价?对于Noblelift智能设备有限公司,我们整理了您应该考虑的三个相关方面:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Noblelift Intelligent EquipmentLtd that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does 603611's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
- 风险:例如,我们发现了Noblelift Intellift Intelligent EquipmentLTD的1个警告信号,在投资这里之前,你应该注意这个信号。
- 未来收益:与同行和整个市场相比,603611的增长率如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,深入了解未来几年的分析师共识数字。
- 其他高质量的替代品:你喜欢一个优秀的全能选手吗?浏览我们的高品质股票互动清单,了解您可能还会错过什么!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS。Simply Wall St每天都会更新每只中国股票的差价合约计算结果,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,请在此处搜索。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。