Shanghai Pudong ConstructionLtd (SHSE:600284) Shareholders Should Be Cautious Despite Solid Earnings
Shanghai Pudong ConstructionLtd (SHSE:600284) Shareholders Should Be Cautious Despite Solid Earnings
Shanghai Pudong Construction Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600284) posted some decent earnings, but shareholders didn't react strongly. Our analysis has found some concerning factors which weaken the profit's foundation.
上海浦东建设有限公司, Ltd.(上海证券交易所代码:600284)公布了一些不错的收益,但股东们的反应并不强烈。我们的分析发现了一些削弱利润基础的相关因素。
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Examining Cashflow Against Shanghai Pudong ConstructionLtd's Earnings
根据上海浦东建设有限公司的收益检查现金流
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
在高级财务中,用于衡量公司将报告的利润转换为自由现金流(FCF)的关键比率是应计比率(来自现金流)。应计比率从给定时期的利润中减去FCF,然后将结果除以该时间内公司的平均运营资产。这个比率告诉我们,一家公司的利润中有多少没有自由现金流的支持。
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
因此,当公司的应计比率为负时,这实际上被认为是一件好事,但是如果应计比率为正,则被认为是一件坏事。这并不意味着我们应该担心应计比率为正,但值得注意的是,应计比率相当高的地方。那是因为一些学术研究表明,高应计比率往往会导致利润下降或利润增长放缓。
Over the twelve months to December 2023, Shanghai Pudong ConstructionLtd recorded an accrual ratio of 1.26. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥889m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥577.1m. It's worth noting that Shanghai Pudong ConstructionLtd generated positive FCF of CN¥2.3b a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. The good news for shareholders is that Shanghai Pudong ConstructionLtd's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
在截至2023年12月的十二个月中,上海浦东建设有限公司的应计比率为1.26。通常,这对未来的盈利能力来说是个坏兆头。换句话说,该公司在那段时间内没有产生一点自由现金流。在过去的一年里,它实际上有 负面的 自由现金流为8.89亿元人民币,而上述利润为5.771亿元人民币。值得注意的是,上海浦东建设有限公司一年前创造了23亿元人民币的正FCF,因此至少他们过去曾这样做过。但是,这还不是要考虑的全部。应计比率至少部分反映了不寻常项目对法定利润的影响。对股东来说,好消息是,上海浦东建设有限公司去年的应计比率要好得多,因此今年的糟糕数据可能只是利润与FCF之间短期不匹配的情况。如果确实如此,股东应寻求在本年度的现金流相对于利润的改善。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
这可能会让你想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看根据他们的估计描绘未来盈利能力的交互式图表。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
不寻常物品对利润的影响
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥28m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).
该公司去年有不寻常的项目将利润提高了2800万元人民币,这一事实可能在某种程度上可以解释其应计比率为何如此疲软。虽然我们希望看到利润增加,但当不寻常的物品做出重大贡献时,我们往往会更加谨慎一些。当我们计算数千家上市公司的数字时,我们发现,特定年份中不寻常的项目所带来的提振通常不会在第二年重演。而且,毕竟,这正是会计术语的含义。假设这些不寻常的项目在本年度不会再次出现,因此我们预计明年的利润将疲软(也就是说,在业务没有增长的情况下)。
Our Take On Shanghai Pudong ConstructionLtd's Profit Performance
我们对上海浦东建设有限公司盈利表现的看法
Shanghai Pudong ConstructionLtd had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Shanghai Pudong ConstructionLtd's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. For example, we've found that Shanghai Pudong ConstructionLtd has 2 warning signs (1 is a bit concerning!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.
上海浦东建设有限公司的应计比率较低,但其利润确实受到不寻常项目的提振。出于上述原因,我们认为,敷衍地看一眼上海浦东建设有限公司的法定利润可能会使其看起来比实际水平要好。有鉴于此,如果你想对公司进行更多分析,了解所涉及的风险至关重要。例如,我们发现上海浦东建设有限公司有 2 个警告标志(1 个有点令人担忧!)在进行进一步分析之前,这值得你注意。
Our examination of Shanghai Pudong ConstructionLtd has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
我们对上海浦东建设有限公司的审查侧重于某些可能使其收益看起来好于实际的因素。而且,在此基础上,我们有些怀疑。但是,还有很多其他方法可以让你对公司的看法。有些人认为高股本回报率是优质业务的好兆头。虽然可能需要你进行一些研究,但你可能会发现这份免费收集的拥有高股本回报率的公司,或者这份内部人士正在购买的股票清单很有用。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。