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Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group) Inc. (SZSE:000661)?

Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group) Inc. (SZSE:000661)?

股票下跌和基本面稳健:市场对长春高新技术产业(集团)股份有限公司(SZSE: 000661)的看法错误吗?
Simply Wall St ·  04/11 22:00

Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group) (SZSE:000661) has had a rough month with its share price down 9.8%. However, stock prices are usually driven by a company's financial performance over the long term, which in this case looks quite promising. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group)'s ROE today.

长春高新技术产业(集团)(深圳证券交易所股票代码:000661)经历了艰难的一个月,其股价下跌了9.8%。但是,股票价格通常由公司的长期财务业绩驱动,在这种情况下,这看起来很有希望。特别是,我们今天将关注长春高新技术产业(集团)的投资回报率。

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

投资回报率或股本回报率是评估公司如何有效地从股东那里获得投资回报的有用工具。换句话说,它揭示了公司成功地将股东投资转化为利润。

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE 是如何计算的?

The formula for return on equity is:

股本回报率的公式是:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

股本回报率 = 净利润(来自持续经营业务)÷ 股东权益

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group) is:

因此,根据上述公式,长春高新技术产业(集团)的投资回报率为:

19% = CN¥4.8b ÷ CN¥25b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

19% = 48亿元人民币 ÷ 25亿元人民币(基于截至2023年12月的过去十二个月)。

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. That means that for every CN¥1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated CN¥0.19 in profit.

“回报” 是过去十二个月的税后收入。这意味着,每获得价值1元人民币的股东权益,该公司就会产生0.19元人民币的利润。

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

为什么投资回报率对收益增长很重要?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

到目前为止,我们已经了解到,投资回报率是衡量公司盈利能力的指标。然后,我们能够评估公司的收益增长潜力,具体取决于公司对这些利润进行再投资或 “保留” 了多少及其有效性。假设其他条件都一样,与功能不相同的公司相比,具有更高股本回报率和更高利润保留率的公司通常具有更高的增长率。

Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group)'s Earnings Growth And 19% ROE

长春高新技术产业(集团)的收益增长和19%的投资回报率

To start with, Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group)'s ROE looks acceptable. On comparing with the average industry ROE of 8.2% the company's ROE looks pretty remarkable. Probably as a result of this, Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group) was able to see an impressive net income growth of 24% over the last five years. We believe that there might also be other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently.

首先,长春高新技术产业(集团)的投资回报率似乎可以接受。与8.2%的行业平均投资回报率相比,该公司的投资回报率看起来相当可观。可能正因为如此,长春高新技术产业(集团)在过去五年中实现了令人印象深刻的24%的净收入增长。我们认为,可能还有其他方面对公司的收益增长产生积极影响。例如,该公司的派息率较低或管理效率很高。

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group)'s growth is quite high when compared to the industry average growth of 11% in the same period, which is great to see.

接下来,与行业净收入增长相比,我们发现,与同期行业平均增长11%相比,长春高新技术产业(集团)的增长相当高,这令人欣喜。

past-earnings-growth
SZSE:000661 Past Earnings Growth April 12th 2024
SZSE: 000661 过去的收益增长 2024 年 4 月 12 日

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group) is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

收益增长是对股票进行估值时要考虑的重要指标。无论如何,投资者应设法确定预期的收益增长或下降是否已计入其中。然后,这可以帮助他们确定股票是为光明还是暗淡的未来而布局。衡量预期收益增长的一个很好的指标是市盈率,它根据收益前景决定了市场愿意为股票支付的价格。因此,您可能需要检查长春高新技术产业(集团)相对于其行业是高市盈率还是低市盈率。

Is Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group) Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

长春高新技术产业(集团)是否在有效利用其利润?

Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group)'s ' three-year median payout ratio is on the lower side at 9.6% implying that it is retaining a higher percentage (90%) of its profits. So it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business and this reflects in its earnings growth number.

长春高新技术产业(集团)的三年中位数派息率处于较低水平,为9.6%,这意味着它保留了更高的利润百分比(90%)。因此,管理层似乎正在将利润大量再投资以发展业务,这反映在其收益增长数字上。

Moreover, Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group) is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 16% over the next three years. Regardless, the ROE is not expected to change much for the company despite the higher expected payout ratio.

此外,长春高新技术产业(集团)决心继续与股东分享利润,这是我们从其至少十年派息的长期历史中推断出来的。我们最新的分析师数据显示,该公司的未来派息率预计将在未来三年内上升至16%。无论如何,尽管预期的派息率更高,但预计该公司的投资回报率不会有太大变化。

Conclusion

结论

On the whole, we feel that Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group)'s performance has been quite good. Particularly, we like that the company is reinvesting heavily into its business, and at a high rate of return. Unsurprisingly, this has led to an impressive earnings growth. That being so, a study of the latest analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to see a slowdown in its future earnings growth. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

总体而言,我们觉得长春高新技术产业(集团)的表现相当不错。特别是,我们喜欢该公司对其业务进行大量再投资,而且回报率很高。毫不奇怪,这带来了令人印象深刻的收益增长。既然如此,对分析师最新预测的研究表明,预计该公司未来的收益增长将放缓。要详细了解分析师对公司的最新预测,请查看该公司的分析师预测的可视化。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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