Crypto Analyst Unveils Reasons Behind Latest Altcoin Crash, Forecasts Rebound Amid Turmoil
Crypto Analyst Unveils Reasons Behind Latest Altcoin Crash, Forecasts Rebound Amid Turmoil
The crypto analyst known for accurately predicting the end of Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) bull market in 2021 has shared insights into the recent downturn in the altcoin market.
这位以准确预测2021年比特币（加密货币：BTC）牛市结束而闻名的加密分析师分享了对山寨币市场近期低迷的见解。
On Friday, pseudonymous crypto strategist Pentoshi shared his view on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the recent altcoin crash can be attributed to simple supply and demand dynamics combined with a loss of momentum.
周五，化名加密策略师Pentoshi在X（前身为Twitter）上分享了他的观点，即最近的山寨币暴跌可以归因于简单的供需动态以及动能的丧失。
Pentoshi explained that the frequent launch of new altcoins diluted demand. This saturation led to a scenario where around $200 million a day in new money inflows was necessary to sustain current prices.
Pentoshi解释说，新山寨币的频繁推出稀释了需求。这种饱和导致了这样一种情景，即每天需要约2亿美元的新资金流入才能维持当前的价格。
Eventually, supply outpaced demand, leading to sharp declines in the market, he said.
他说，最终，供应超过了需求，导致市场急剧下跌。
"We got to the point where there were a lot of new coins launching daily and each one needed more and more liquidity to support it. At one point, it needed around $200 million a day of new money inflows to support current prices," Pentoshi said in a post highlighting the imbalance that precipitated the crash.
“我们到了每天都有很多新硬币发行的地步，每种硬币都需要越来越多的流动性来支持。有一次，它每天需要约2亿美元的新资金流入来支撑当前的价格。” 彭托希在一篇文章中说，他强调了导致暴跌的不平衡。
I always relate markets to sports or a game
Why bc you play both offense and defense and there are huge momentum shifts
At times you can feel the momentum waning and at this point momentum swings the other way. Even if only temprorary
So what happened here? I think for the... pic.twitter.com/RLnLMpjDKy— Pentoshi euroPeng � (@Pentosh1) April 12, 2024
我总是将市场与体育或游戏联系起来
为什么 bc 你同时玩进攻和防守而且势头发生了巨大的变化
有时你会感觉到势头减弱，此时动量反过来波动。即使只是暂时的
那么这里发生了什么？我想对于... pic.twitter.com/rlnlmpjdky— Pentoshi EuroPeng (@Pentosh1) 2024 年 4 月 12 日
Despite this significant correction, Pentoshi remained optimistic about the broader crypto bull market's health.
尽管进行了重大修正，但Pentoshi仍对更广泛的加密牛市的健康状况持乐观态度。
He emphasized that the downturn represents a local, not a macro, top and suggested that the market is far from reaching a point of "infinite supply" with no buyers left, which typically signals the end of a bull market.
他强调，经济低迷代表的是局部高位，而不是宏观经济高位，并表示市场远未达到 “无限供应”，没有买家，这通常预示着牛市的结束。
"We reached a point of balance and then the other team took over temporarily," Pentoshi added.
彭托希补充说：“我们达到了平衡点，然后另一支队伍暂时接手了。”
Pentoshi's analysis of TOTAL3, an index that tracks the value of the altcoin market, showed a roughly 30% drop from its 2024 peak of $788.85 billion to a low of $563.85 billion.
彭托希对追踪山寨币市场价值的指数 TOTAL3 的分析显示，从2024年的峰值7888.5亿美元跌至5638.5亿美元的低点，下降了约30％。
However, he anticipated support at around $600 billion and predicted a rebound to a $1 trillion market valuation.
但是，他预计支撑位约为6000亿美元，并预测市场估值将反弹至1万亿美元。
"This isn't the macro top, in my opinion, just a local one," Pentoshi added.
彭托希补充说：“在我看来，这不是宏观顶部，只是本地顶部。”
However, he cautioned that a change in this outlook would depend on significant shifts, such as Bitcoin losing market structure or substantial outflows from Bitcoin ETFs.
但是，他警告说，这种前景的变化将取决于重大变化，例如比特币失去市场结构或比特币ETF的大量资金流出。
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