Treasury Yields Head To 'Danger Zone': Analyst Forecasts Potential Spike To 5%, Disorderly Sell-Off For Markets
Treasury Yields Head To 'Danger Zone': Analyst Forecasts Potential Spike To 5%, Disorderly Sell-Off For Markets
Yields on the 10-year Treasury note have ascended to a striking 4.70% this month, the highest mark since early November 2023 amid a toxic mix of higher inflation, a stubbornly resilient economy and revised expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts.
10年期美国国债的收益率本月已升至惊人的4.70%,为2023年11月初以来的最高水平,这是通货膨胀率上升、经济强劲弹性以及对美联储降息预期的修正所致。
Adding to the unease, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently indicated the latest economic data does not bolster confidence that inflation will converge towards the Fed's 2% target soon.
更令人不安的是,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近表示,最新的经济数据并不能增强人们对通货膨胀将很快接近美联储2%目标的信心。
The bond market strain is also reflected in the performance of related instruments, such as the US Treasury 10 Year Note ETF (NYSE:UTEN), which is down by 2.9% for April, making it the most challenging month since September 2023.
债券市场的压力也反映在相关工具的表现上,例如美国国债10年期国债ETF(纽约证券交易所代码:UTEN),4月份下跌2.9%,是自2023年9月以来最具挑战性的月份。
Longer-dated Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), fell even more, down 5.6% month to date.
长期美国国债交易所交易基金(ETF),例如iShares 20年以上国债ETF(纳斯达克股票代码:TLT),跌幅更大,迄今为止下跌了5.6%。
Chart: 10-Year Treasury Yields Eye The 5% Red Line
图表:10年期国债收益率关注5%的红线
Analysts Rethink Fed's Next Moves: Vanguard Issues Warnings When Yields Hit 5%
分析师重新考虑美联储的下一步行动:当收益率达到5%时,Vanguard发出警告
The landscape of Fed policy expectations is being redrawn by analysts who, until recently, had not anticipated such aggressive shifts in Treasury yields. Few had foreseen yields approaching levels that could destabilize the market.
分析师正在重新描绘美联储的政策预期格局,直到最近,他们还没有预料到美国国债收益率会出现如此激进的变化。很少有人预见到收益率将接近可能破坏市场稳定的水平。
Yet, Vanguard's head of international rates Ales Koutny offered a stark warning: "We are in a danger zone right now."
然而,Vanguard的国际利率主管阿莱斯·库特尼发出了严厉的警告:“我们现在处于危险地带。”
Koutny believed that surpassing the 4.75% yield threshold could trigger a severe sell-off, potentially driving rates to or beyond 5%.
库特尼认为,超过4.75%的收益率门槛可能会引发严重的抛售,有可能将利率推高至或超过5%。
As recently reported by Bloomberg, investors flocked to Treasuries late last year, anticipating a quick easing of Federal Reserve policies. However, resilient economic data from the U.S. has dampened these expectations, turning the tide against market optimists.
正如彭博社最近报道的那样,去年年底,投资者涌向美国国债,他们预计美联储将迅速放松政策。但是,来自美国的弹性经济数据抑制了这些预期,扭转了市场乐观主义者的局面。
Koutny revealed, "We still think that there's a residual long position left over." The lack of orderly adjustment in these positions could precipitate a chaotic market selloff, risking a yield spike to critical levels.
库特尼透露:“我们仍然认为还有剩余的多头头寸。”这些头寸缺乏有序调整可能会引发混乱的市场抛售,从而有可能使收益率飙升至临界水平。
Despite the prevailing negative market sentiment, the current high yields have attracted some opportunistic buying.
尽管普遍存在负面市场情绪,但当前的高收益率吸引了一些机会主义买盘。
The latest data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. indicates a significant shift in investor positioning towards Treasuries, marking the first net long stance since March.
摩根大通的最新数据表明,投资者对美国国债的定位发生了重大转变,这是自3月份以来的首次净多头头寸。
The robust demand was further evidenced by a successful 20-year Treasury auction, closing at yields slightly lower than anticipated, suggesting underlying market confidence in Treasury securities despite broader concerns.
20年期美国国债拍卖的成功进一步证明了强劲的需求,收盘收益率略低于预期,这表明尽管存在更广泛的担忧,但基础市场仍对美国国债充满信心。
Read Now: Fund Managers Are The Most Optimistic Since 2022: 'Bull Sentiment Not Quite At Close-Your-Eyes-And-Sell Levels'
立即阅读: 基金经理是自2022年以来最乐观的:“牛市情绪尚未完全达到闭眼卖出水平”
Photo: Shutterstock
照片:Shutterstock