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Why Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane's (SZSE:002523) Shaky Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems

Why Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane's (SZSE:002523) Shaky Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems

为什么株洲天桥起重机(深圳证券交易所:002523)的收益不稳定只是问题的开始
Simply Wall St ·  04/20 22:47

Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002523) earnings announcement last week contained some soft numbers, disappointing investors. We did some digging and think there are some comforting factors lying beneath the statutory profit numbers.

株洲天桥起重机有限公司s(SZSE:002523)上周的财报中包含一些疲软的数字,令投资者失望。我们进行了一些挖掘,认为法定利润数字之下有一些令人欣慰的因素。

earnings-and-revenue-history
SZSE:002523 Earnings and Revenue History April 21st 2024
SZSE: 002523 2024 年 4 月 21 日的收益和收入历史记录

Examining Cashflow Against Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane's Earnings

根据株洲天桥起重机的收益研究现金流

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

在高级财务中,用于衡量公司将报告的利润转换为自由现金流(FCF)的关键比率是应计比率(来自现金流)。为了获得应计比率,我们首先从一段时期的利润中减去FCF,然后将该数字除以该期间的平均运营资产。这个比率告诉我们,一家公司的利润中有多少没有自由现金流的支持。

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

因此,负应计比率对公司来说是正数,而正应计比率是负数。这并不意味着我们应该担心应计比率为正,但值得注意的是,应计比率相当高的地方。值得注意的是,有一些学术证据表明,总的来说,高应计率对短期利润来说是个坏兆头。

Over the twelve months to December 2023, Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane recorded an accrual ratio of -0.14. That indicates that its free cash flow was a fair bit more than its statutory profit. To wit, it produced free cash flow of CN¥309m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of CN¥37.3m. Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.

在截至2023年12月的十二个月中,株洲天桥起重机的应计率为-0.14。这表明其自由现金流远超过其法定利润。换句话说,它在此期间产生的自由现金流为3.09亿元人民币,与其报告的3730万元利润相形见绌。株洲天桥起重机的自由现金流比去年有所改善,总体来说还是不错的。话虽如此,故事还有更多。我们可以看到,不寻常的项目影响了其法定利润,从而影响了应计比率。

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane.

注意:我们始终建议投资者检查资产负债表的实力。点击此处查看我们对株洲天桥起重机的资产负债表分析。

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

不寻常物品对利润的影响

Surprisingly, given Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane's accrual ratio implied strong cash conversion, its paper profit was actually boosted by CN¥18m in unusual items. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to December 2023. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.

令人惊讶的是,鉴于株洲天桥起重机的应计比率意味着强劲的现金转换,其票面利润实际上是由1800万元人民币的不寻常项目提振的。我们不能否认更高的利润通常会让我们感到乐观,但如果利润是可持续的,我们更愿意这样做。当我们分析全球绝大多数上市公司时,我们发现重大不寻常的事项往往不会重演。这正如你所预料的那样,因为这些增强被描述为 “不寻常”。截至2023年12月,株洲天桥起重机从不寻常的项目中获得了相当大的利润。因此,我们可以推测,这些不寻常的物品使其法定利润明显高于原来的水平。

Our Take On Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane's Profit Performance

我们对株洲天桥起重机盈利表现的看法

Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane's profits got a boost from unusual items, which indicates they might not be sustained and yet its accrual ratio still indicated solid cash conversion, which is promising. Having considered these factors, we don't think Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane's statutory profits give an overly harsh view of the business. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane (1 is potentially serious) you should be familiar with.

株洲天桥起重机的利润因不寻常的项目而得到提振,这表明这些利润可能无法持续下去,但其应计比率仍然显示出稳健的现金转换,这令人鼓舞。考虑到这些因素,我们认为株洲天桥起重机的法定利润对该业务的看法并不过于严厉。有鉴于此,如果你想对公司进行更多分析,了解所涉及的风险至关重要。例如,我们已经确定了你应该熟悉的株洲天桥起重机的两个警告标志(其中一个可能很严重)。

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, as a guide to a business. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

在这篇文章中,我们研究了许多可能损害利润数字效用的因素,以此作为企业的指南。但是,还有很多其他方法可以让你对公司的看法。有些人认为高股本回报率是优质业务的好兆头。虽然可能需要你进行一些研究,但你可能会发现这份免费收集的拥有高股本回报率的公司,或者这份内部人士正在购买的股票清单很有用。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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