FriendLtd's (SHSE:605050) Profits May Not Reveal Underlying Issues
FriendLtd's (SHSE:605050) Profits May Not Reveal Underlying Issues
The recent earnings posted by Friend Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:605050) were solid, but the stock didn't move as much as we expected. We think this is due to investors looking beyond the statutory profits and being concerned with what they see.
Friend Co. 最近公布的财报, Ltd.(上海证券交易所股票代码:605050)表现稳定,但该股的波动幅度没有我们预期的那么大。我们认为这是由于投资者将目光投向了法定利润之外并关注他们所看到的情况。
![earnings-and-revenue-history](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240425/0-ba1a959c64c89af9310826e349551a66-0-716d6166a627ac82e0a509dbfc1a1140.png/big)
Examining Cashflow Against FriendLtd's Earnings
根据FriendLtd的收益检查现金流
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
许多投资者还没有听说过现金流的应计比率,但它实际上是衡量公司在给定时期内自由现金流(FCF)在多大程度上支持利润的有用指标。简而言之,该比率从净利润中减去FCF,然后将该数字除以该时期公司的平均运营资产。你可以将现金流的应计比率视为 “非FCF利润率”。
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
因此,负应计比率对公司来说是正数,而正应计比率是负数。虽然正应计比率表明非现金利润达到一定水平不是问题,但高应计比率可以说是一件坏事,因为它表明纸面利润与现金流不匹配。引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年发表的一篇论文,“应计额较高的公司将来的利润往往会降低”。
FriendLtd has an accrual ratio of 0.39 for the year to December 2023. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥830m despite its profit of CN¥417.3m, mentioned above. We also note that FriendLtd's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of CN¥830m.
截至2023年12月的一年中,FriendLtd的应计比率为0.39。从统计学上讲,这对未来的收益来说确实是负面的。事实上,在此期间,该公司没有产生任何自由现金流。在过去的十二个月里,它实际上有 负面的 自由现金流,尽管利润为4.173亿元人民币,但流出量仍为8.3亿元人民币,如上所述。我们还注意到,去年 FriendLtd 的自由现金流实际上也是负的,因此我们可以理解股东是否被其8.3亿元人民币的流出所困扰。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
这可能会让你想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看根据他们的估计描绘未来盈利能力的交互式图表。
Our Take On FriendLtd's Profit Performance
我们对FriendLtd的利润表现的看法
As we discussed above, we think FriendLtd's earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. For this reason, we think that FriendLtd's statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. But at least holders can take some solace from the 21% EPS growth in the last year. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. For example, FriendLtd has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.
正如我们上面讨论的那样,我们认为FriendLtd的收益没有得到自由现金流的支持,这可能会让一些投资者感到担忧。出于这个原因,我们认为FriendLtd的法定利润可能不利于其潜在盈利能力,并可能给投资者留下过于积极的公司印象。但是,至少持有人可以从去年21%的每股收益增长中得到一些安慰。归根结底,如果你想正确地了解公司,必须考虑的不仅仅是上述因素。请记住,在分析股票时,值得注意所涉及的风险。例如,FriendLtd 有 2 个警告标志(以及 1 个有点不愉快),我们认为你应该知道。
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of FriendLtd's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
这份报告只研究了揭示FriendLTD利润性质的单一因素。但是,还有很多其他方法可以让你对公司的看法。例如,许多人认为高股本回报率是有利的商业经济的标志,而另一些人则喜欢 “关注资金”,寻找内部人士正在买入的股票。虽然可能需要你进行一些研究,但你可能会发现这份免费收集的拥有高股本回报率的公司,或者这份内部人士正在购买的股票清单很有用。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。