Is Arrow Home Group Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:001322) Stock Price Struggling As A Result Of Its Mixed Financials?
Is Arrow Home Group Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:001322) Stock Price Struggling As A Result Of Its Mixed Financials?
With its stock down 24% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Arrow Home Group (SZSE:001322). It seems that the market might have completely ignored the positive aspects of the company's fundamentals and decided to weigh-in more on the negative aspects. Fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes so it makes sense to study the company's financials. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Arrow Home Group's ROE today.
在过去三个月中,艾睿家居集团(SZSE:001322)的股票下跌了24%,很容易被忽视。看来市场可能完全忽视了公司基本面的积极方面,并决定更多地考虑负面方面。基本面通常决定市场业绩,因此研究公司的财务状况是有意义的。特别是,我们今天将关注艾睿家居集团的投资回报率。
Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors' money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.
股本回报率或投资回报率是对公司增值和管理投资者资金的有效性的考验。换句话说,它是衡量公司股东提供的资本回报率的盈利比率。
How Is ROE Calculated?
ROE 是如何计算的?
The formula for return on equity is:
股本回报率的公式是:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
股本回报率 = 净利润(来自持续经营业务)÷ 股东权益
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Arrow Home Group is:
因此,根据上述公式,艾睿家居集团的投资回报率为:
6.7% = CN¥330m ÷ CN¥4.9b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).
6.7% = 3.3亿元人民币 ÷ 49亿元人民币(基于截至2024年3月的过去十二个月)。
The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every CN¥1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn CN¥0.07 in profit.
“回报” 是过去十二个月的税后收入。另一种思考方式是,公司每拥有价值1元人民币的股权,就能获得0.07元的利润。
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
投资回报率与收益增长有什么关系?
We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don't share these attributes.
我们已经确定,投资回报率是衡量公司未来收益的有效盈利指标。根据公司选择将多少利润进行再投资或 “保留”,我们便能够评估公司未来创造利润的能力。一般而言,在其他条件相同的情况下,股本回报率和利润留存率高的公司的增长率要高于不具有这些属性的公司。
A Side By Side comparison of Arrow Home Group's Earnings Growth And 6.7% ROE
Arrow Home Group 的收益增长和 6.7% 的投资回报率的并排比较
On the face of it, Arrow Home Group's ROE is not much to talk about. However, given that the company's ROE is similar to the average industry ROE of 7.8%, we may spare it some thought. But Arrow Home Group saw a five year net income decline of 7.9% over the past five years. Bear in mind, the company does have a slightly low ROE. Therefore, the decline in earnings could also be the result of this.
从表面上看,艾睿家居集团的投资回报率没什么好谈的。但是,鉴于该公司的投资回报率与7.8%的平均行业投资回报率相似,我们可以不加思索。但是,在过去五年中,艾睿家居集团的五年净收入下降了7.9%。请记住,该公司的投资回报率确实略低。因此,收入的下降也可能是由此造成的。
However, when we compared Arrow Home Group's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 5.5% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.
但是,当我们将Arrow Home Group的增长与该行业的增长进行比较时,我们发现,尽管该公司的收益一直在萎缩,但该行业同期的收益增长了5.5%。这非常令人担忧。
![past-earnings-growth](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240426/0-457f3c60f6f03e34e6a4bbc3071b22de-0-690119fd2148821431ea35c9915f3252.png/big)
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Has the market priced in the future outlook for 001322? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.
收益增长是股票估值的重要因素。无论如何,投资者应设法确定预期的收益增长或下降是否已计入其中。然后,这可以帮助他们确定股票是面向光明还是暗淡的未来。市场对001322的未来展望进行了定价吗?您可以在我们最新的内在价值信息图研究报告中找到答案。
Is Arrow Home Group Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
Arrow Home Group 是否在有效利用其利润?
Despite having a normal three-year median payout ratio of 31% (where it is retaining 69% of its profits), Arrow Home Group has seen a decline in earnings as we saw above. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.
尽管正常的三年派息率中位数为31%(保留了69%的利润),但如上所示,Arrow Home Group的收益却有所下降。因此,在这方面可能还有其他解释。例如,该公司的业务可能正在恶化。
Additionally, Arrow Home Group started paying a dividend only recently. So it looks like the management may have perceived that shareholders favor dividends even though earnings have been in decline. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 25%. Still, forecasts suggest that Arrow Home Group's future ROE will rise to 10% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.
此外,Arrow Home Group直到最近才开始派发股息。因此,看来管理层可能已经认为,尽管收益有所下降,但股东还是偏爱分红。根据分析师的最新估计,我们发现该公司未来三年的派息率预计将稳定在25%。尽管如此,预测表明,Arrow Home Group未来的投资回报率将升至10%,尽管该公司的派息率预计不会有太大变化。
Conclusion
结论
Overall, we have mixed feelings about Arrow Home Group. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
总的来说,我们对艾睿家居集团有喜忧参半的感觉。尽管鉴于投资回报率低,它似乎保留了大部分利润,但投资者毕竟可能无法从所有这些再投资中受益。低收入增长表明我们的理论是正确的。话虽如此,我们研究了分析师的最新预测,发现尽管该公司过去曾缩减收益,但分析师预计其未来收益将增长。这些分析师的预期是基于对该行业的广泛预期,还是基于公司的基本面?点击此处进入我们分析师对公司的预测页面。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。