Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) CO., LTD Just Missed Earnings And Its Revenue Numbers Were Weaker Than Expected
Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) CO., LTD Just Missed Earnings And Its Revenue Numbers Were Weaker Than Expected
The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) CO., LTD (SZSE:002541), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) reported an earnings miss, with CN¥4.4b revenues falling 15% short of analyst models, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.29 also coming in slightly below expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) after the latest results.
分析师可能对安徽宏路钢铁建设(集团)有限公司(SZSE:002541)过于看好,因为该公司在上周发布季度业绩时未达到预期。安徽宏路钢铁建设(集团)报告盈利不佳,44亿元人民币的收入比分析师的模型低15%,0.29元人民币的法定每股收益(EPS)也略低于预期。根据结果,分析师更新了他们的盈利模式,很高兴知道他们是否认为公司的前景发生了巨大变化,或者业务是否照旧。读者会很高兴得知我们已经汇总了最新的法定预测,以了解分析师在最新业绩公布后是否改变了对安徽宏路钢建(集团)的看法。
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After the latest results, the 14 analysts covering Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) are now predicting revenues of CN¥26.7b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 14% to CN¥1.96. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥27.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.91 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
最新业绩公布后,涵盖安徽宏路钢构(集团)的14位分析师现在预测2024年的收入为267亿元人民币。如果得到满足,这将反映出与过去12个月相比收入增长了16%的可观增长。预计每股法定收益将增长14%,至1.96元人民币。在本报告发布之前,分析师一直在模拟2024年的收入为270亿元人民币,每股收益(EPS)为1.91元人民币。从他们新的每股收益估计来看,分析师似乎对该业务更加看好。
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of CN¥25.43, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) analyst has a price target of CN¥42.46 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥20.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
25.43元人民币的共识目标股价没有重大变化,这表明每股收益前景的改善不足以对该股估值产生长期的积极影响。共识目标股价只是个别分析师目标的平均值,因此——可以很方便地看到基础估计值的范围有多广。最乐观的安徽宏路钢铁建筑(集团)分析师将目标股价定为每股42.46元人民币,而最悲观的分析师则将其估值为20.00元人民币。注意到分析师目标股价的巨大差距了吗?对我们来说,这意味着基础业务存在相当广泛的可能情景。
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group)'shistorical trends, as the 22% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 19% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
现在从大局来看,我们理解这些预测的方法之一是了解它们与过去的业绩和行业增长估计相比如何。我们可以从最新的估计中推断,预测预计安徽宏路钢建(集团)的历史趋势将延续,因为到2024年底的22%的年化收入增长与过去五年19%的年增长率大致一致。相比之下,分析师估计(总计),整个行业的收入将每年增长10%。因此,很明显,预计安徽宏路钢建(集团)的增长将大大快于其行业。
The Bottom Line
底线
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group)'s earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥25.43, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
对我们来说,最大的收获是共识的每股收益上调,这表明围绕安徽宏路钢建(集团)明年盈利潜力的情绪将明显改善。令人高兴的是,收入预测没有重大变化,预计该业务的增长速度仍将快于整个行业。共识目标股价稳定在25.43元人民币,最新估计不足以对其目标价格产生影响。
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
话虽如此,公司收益的长期轨迹比明年重要得多。我们对安徽宏路钢构(集团)到2026年的发展做出了预测,你可以在我们的平台上免费查看。
It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to take into consideration.
还值得注意的是,我们发现了安徽宏路钢建(集团)的3个警示标志(1个有点不愉快!)这是你需要考虑的。
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