Shaky Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For UE Furniture (SHSE:603600)
Shaky Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For UE Furniture (SHSE:603600)
UE Furniture Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603600) lackluster earnings announcement last week disappointed investors. We looked deeper and believe that there is even more to be worried about, beyond the soft profit numbers.
UE 家具有限公司's(上海证券交易所股票代码:603600)上周公布的乏善可陈的财报令投资者失望。我们进行了更深入的研究,并认为除了疲软的利润数字外,还有更多需要担心的地方。
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A Closer Look At UE Furniture's Earnings
仔细研究UE Furniture的收益
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
用于衡量公司将其利润转化为自由现金流(FCF)的效果的一个关键财务比率是应计比率。为了获得应计比率,我们首先从一段时间内的利润中减去FCF,然后将该数字除以该期间的平均运营资产。该比率向我们显示了公司的利润超过其FCF的程度。
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
因此,负应计比率对公司来说是正数,正应计比率是负数。这并不意味着我们应该担心应计比率为正,但值得注意的是,应计比率相当高的地方。引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年发表的一篇论文,“应计额较高的公司未来的利润往往较低”。
Over the twelve months to March 2024, UE Furniture recorded an accrual ratio of 0.22. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow fell significantly short of its reported profits. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥288.8m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥77m in the last year. It's worth noting that UE Furniture generated positive FCF of CN¥499m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. Having said that, there is more to consider. We must also consider the impact of unusual items on statutory profit (and thus the accrual ratio), as well as note the ramifications of the company issuing new shares. One positive for UE Furniture shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
在截至2024年3月的十二个月中,UE Furniture的应计比率为0.22。不幸的是,这意味着其自由现金流远低于其报告的利润。尽管该公司报告的利润为2.888亿元人民币,但从自由现金流来看,它实际上在去年消耗了7700万元人民币。值得注意的是,UE Furniture一年前创造了4.99亿元人民币的正FCF,因此至少他们过去曾这样做过。话虽如此,还有更多需要考虑的地方。我们还必须考虑不寻常项目对法定利润(以及应计比率)的影响,并注意公司发行新股的后果。对UE Furniture股东来说,一个积极因素是,去年的应计比率明显改善,这使人们有理由相信其未来可能会恢复更强劲的现金转换。如果确实如此,股东应寻求在本年度的现金流相对于利润的改善。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
这可能会让你想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看根据他们的估计描绘未来盈利能力的交互式图表。
To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. UE Furniture expanded the number of shares on issue by 11% over the last year. Therefore, each share now receives a smaller portion of profit. Per share metrics like EPS help us understand how much actual shareholders are benefitting from the company's profits, while the net income level gives us a better view of the company's absolute size. You can see a chart of UE Furniture's EPS by clicking here.
要了解公司收益增长的价值,必须考虑削弱股东的利益。与去年相比,UE Furniture的已发行股票数量增加了11%。因此,每股现在获得的利润比例较小。每股收益等每股指标可以帮助我们了解实际股东从公司的利润中受益的程度,而净收入水平则使我们能够更好地了解公司的绝对规模。您可以点击此处查看UE Furniture的每股收益图表。
A Look At The Impact Of UE Furniture's Dilution On Its Earnings Per Share (EPS)
看看UE Furniture的稀释对其每股收益(EPS)的影响
UE Furniture has improved its profit over the last three years, with an annualized gain of 12% in that time. Net profit actually dropped by 15% in the last year. Unfortunately for shareholders, though, the earnings per share result was even worse, declining 19%. Therefore, the dilution is having a noteworthy influence on shareholder returns.
在过去三年中,UE Furniture的利润有所提高,同期年化增长了12%。去年的净利润实际上下降了15%。但不幸的是,对于股东来说, 每股收益 结果甚至更糟,下降了19%。因此,稀释对股东回报产生了显著影响。
In the long term, if UE Furniture's earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.
从长远来看,如果UE Furniture的收益 每股 可以上涨,那么股价也应该上涨。但是,如果其利润增加而每股收益保持不变(甚至下降),那么股东可能看不到太多好处。出于这个原因,你可以说从长远来看,每股收益比净收入更重要,前提是目标是评估公司的股价是否可能上涨。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
不寻常的物品如何影响利润?
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that UE Furniture's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥112m in the last twelve months. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. We can see that UE Furniture's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to March 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.
考虑到应计比率,在过去十二个月中,价值1.12亿元人民币的不寻常物品提振了UE Furniture的利润也就不足为奇了。虽然我们希望看到利润增加,但当不寻常的物品做出重大贡献时,我们往往会更加谨慎一些。当我们分析全球绝大多数上市公司时,我们发现重大不寻常的事项往往不会重演。而且,毕竟,这正是会计术语的含义。我们可以看到,相对于截至2024年3月的一年中,UE Furniture的不寻常产品与其利润相比相当可观。在其他条件相同的情况下,这可能会使法定利润成为衡量潜在盈利能力的不良指导。
Our Take On UE Furniture's Profit Performance
我们对UE家具利润表现的看法
In conclusion, UE Furniture's weak accrual ratio suggested its statutory earnings have been inflated by the unusual items. Meanwhile, the new shares issued mean that shareholders now own less of the company, unless they tipped in more cash themselves. On reflection, the above-mentioned factors give us the strong impression that UE Furniture'sunderlying earnings power is not as good as it might seem, based on the statutory profit numbers. If you'd like to know more about UE Furniture as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. For example, we've found that UE Furniture has 3 warning signs (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.
总之,UE Furniture的低应计比率表明,这些不寻常的项目夸大了其法定收益。同时,发行的新股意味着股东现在拥有的公司股份有所减少,除非他们自己投入更多现金。经过反思,上述因素给我们留下了强烈的印象,即根据法定利润数字,UE Furniture的潜在盈利能力并不像看起来那样好。如果您想进一步了解UE Furniture作为一家企业,请务必了解其面临的任何风险。例如,我们发现 UE Furniture 有 3 个警告标志(1 个有点不愉快!)在进行进一步分析之前,这值得你注意。
Our examination of UE Furniture has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
我们对UE Furniture的审查侧重于某些可能使其收益看起来好于实际的因素。而且,在此基础上,我们有些怀疑。但是,还有很多其他方法可以让你对公司的看法。例如,许多人认为高股本回报率是有利的商业经济的标志,而另一些人则喜欢 “关注资金”,寻找内部人士正在买入的股票。因此,你可能希望看到这份免费收藏的拥有高股本回报率的公司,或者这份内部人士正在购买的股票清单。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。