CCS Supply Chain Management's (SHSE:600180) Problems Go Beyond Weak Profit
CCS Supply Chain Management's (SHSE:600180) Problems Go Beyond Weak Profit
The subdued market reaction suggests that CCS Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:600180) recent earnings didn't contain any surprises. Our analysis suggests that along with soft profit numbers, investors should be aware of some other underlying weaknesses in the numbers.
疲软的市场反应表明,CCS供应链管理有限公司”s(上海证券交易所代码:600180)最近的收益没有任何意外。我们的分析表明,除了疲软的利润数字外,投资者还应意识到这些数字中的其他一些潜在弱点。
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A Closer Look At CCS Supply Chain Management's Earnings
仔细研究CCS供应链管理的收益
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
在高级财务中,用于衡量公司将报告的利润转换为自由现金流(FCF)的关键比率是应计比率(来自现金流)。应计比率从给定时期的利润中减去FCF,然后将结果除以该时间内公司的平均运营资产。这个比率告诉我们,一家公司的利润中有多少没有自由现金流的支持。
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
这意味着负应计比率是一件好事,因为它表明该公司带来的自由现金流比其利润所暗示的要多。这并不意味着我们应该担心应计比率为正,但值得注意的是,应计比率相当高的地方。值得注意的是,有一些学术证据表明,总的来说,高应计率对短期利润来说是个坏兆头。
For the year to March 2024, CCS Supply Chain Management had an accrual ratio of 0.53. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥3.2b despite its profit of CN¥194.2m, mentioned above. It's worth noting that CCS Supply Chain Management generated positive FCF of CN¥5.3b a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. One positive for CCS Supply Chain Management shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
在截至2024年3月的一年中,CCS供应链管理的应计比率为0.53。从统计学上讲,这对未来的收益来说确实是负面的。事实上,在此期间,该公司没有产生任何自由现金流。在过去的十二个月里,它实际上有 负面的 自由现金流,尽管利润为1.942亿元人民币,但流出32亿元人民币,如上所述。值得注意的是,CCS供应链管理在一年前创造了53亿元人民币的正FCF,因此至少他们过去曾这样做过。但是,这还不是要考虑的全部。应计比率至少部分反映了不寻常项目对法定利润的影响。对于CCS供应链管理股东来说,一个积极因素是,去年的应计比率明显改善,这使人们有理由相信它将来可能会恢复更强劲的现金转换。如果确实如此,股东应寻求在本年度的现金流相对于利润的改善。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of CCS Supply Chain Management.
注意:我们始终建议投资者检查资产负债表的实力。点击此处查看我们对CCS供应链管理的资产负债表分析。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
不寻常的物品如何影响利润?
Unfortunately (in the short term) CCS Supply Chain Management saw its profit reduced by unusual items worth CN¥30m. In the case where this was a non-cash charge it would have made it easier to have high cash conversion, so it's surprising that the accrual ratio tells a different story. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. If CCS Supply Chain Management doesn't see those unusual expenses repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to increase over the coming year.
不幸的是(在短期内),CCS供应链管理的利润因价值3000万元人民币的不寻常物品而减少。如果这是一笔非现金费用,则可以更轻松地实现高现金转换,因此令人惊讶的是,应计比率讲述了一个不同的故事。看到不寻常的项目使公司利润损失从来都不是一件好事,但从好的方面来看,情况可能迟早会好转。当我们分析全球绝大多数上市公司时,我们发现重大不寻常的事项往往不会重演。鉴于这些单列项目被认为不寻常,这并不奇怪。如果CCS供应链管理没有看到这些不寻常的支出重演,那么在其他条件相同的情况下,我们预计其利润将在来年增加。
Our Take On CCS Supply Chain Management's Profit Performance
我们对CCS供应链管理盈利表现的看法
CCS Supply Chain Management saw unusual items weigh on its profit, which should have made it easier to show high cash conversion, which it did not do, according to its accrual ratio. Based on these factors, we think it's very unlikely that CCS Supply Chain Management's statutory profits make it seem much weaker than it is. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing CCS Supply Chain Management at this point in time. Our analysis shows 3 warning signs for CCS Supply Chain Management (1 shouldn't be ignored!) and we strongly recommend you look at these before investing.
CCS Supply Chain Management看到不寻常的项目压制了其利润,这本来可以更容易地显示出高现金转化率,但根据其应计比率,CCS没有这样做。基于这些因素,我们认为CCS供应链管理的法定利润不太可能使其看起来比现在弱得多。因此,尽管收益质量很重要,但考虑CCS供应链管理目前面临的风险同样重要。我们的分析显示了CCS供应链管理的3个警告信号(其中一个不容忽视!)我们强烈建议您在投资之前先看看这些。
Our examination of CCS Supply Chain Management has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
我们对CCS供应链管理的审查侧重于某些可能使其收益看起来好于实际的因素。但是,还有很多其他方法可以让你对公司的看法。有些人认为高股本回报率是优质业务的好兆头。虽然可能需要你进行一些研究,但你可能会发现这份免费收集的拥有高股本回报率的公司,或者这份内部人士正在购买的股票清单很有用。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。