SunCoke Energy, Inc. (NYSE:SXC) defied analyst predictions to release its first-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$488m arriving 6.7% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$0.23, 7.0% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the twin analysts covering SunCoke Energy provided consensus estimates of US$1.88b revenue in 2024, which would reflect an uneasy 9.1% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 15% to US$0.84. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.73b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.85 in 2024. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a slight bump in to revenue forecasts.

It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of US$11.50, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to SunCoke Energy's valuation in the near term.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 12% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 8.0% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.9% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - SunCoke Energy is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$11.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have analyst estimates for SunCoke Energy going out as far as 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 5 warning signs with SunCoke Energy (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.